It was a battle between the rapper with the trademark red beret and the 76-year-old autocrat who had no intention of going anywhere. In the end the result was never in doubt. The dice was always loaded against change; the incumbent had made sure of that.
“I feel scared about what the future holds. We still have the army on the streets but we hope that things get back to normal so we can resume work,” a street vendor in Kampala said this week, too frightened to reveal his name.
On Saturday last week the Ugandan electoral commission announced incumbent Yoweri Museveni had won 58.64% of the national vote while his main rival, Robert Kyagulanyi, known as Bobi Wine, got 34.83%.
After the results were announced, Wine said from his home in Magere on the northern outskirts of the capital, Kampala, that the outcome of the polls was a sham and it had been “the most fraudulent election in the history of Uganda”. He vowed to fight the result in court.
In sharp contrast, Museveni announced, without a hint of irony, that it was the “most cheating-free” election in Uganda’s history.
In an interview with Channel 4 before the election, Museveni had declared: “There are not many things in the world that I don’t know. Uganda is very successful. We are a very strong system because we know what we are doing.”
Human Rights Watch this week detailed the abuses that secured Museveni’s victory. Security forces had clamped down on opposition members and journalists, arresting scores of people, including Wine.On November 18 and 19 they killed 54 protesters who were demanding Wine’s release. Security minister Elly Tumwine told Ugandans that the police had the right “to shoot you and kill you”. At least a dozen were shot in the head, more than half aged between 14 and 30. An internet blackout imposed during the poll was targeted at the strong youth support for the opposition.
The day after the election, Wine’s house was cordoned off to prevent anyone from entering or leaving. This included the US ambassador. Wine filed an arbitrary detention complaint with the UN.
A few days later he posted a photograph of himself, wife Barbie and an 18-month-old toddler, the child of a relative. Wine claimed that when the father came to pick up the child, he was blocked at the entrance.
Wine tweeted on Friday that he was still imprisoned in his home: “Yes, for standing and defeating General Museveni in an election, which he resoundingly rigged, I am still under house arrest eight days later!”
Nicholas Sengoba, a columnist for the independent Daily Monitor, wrote that the biggest effect the social media ban had was creating a sense of isolation.
“Every region, town, city, home, individual was on their own. We hardly got to know what was transpiring in different places in real time, which took away the excitement, replacing it with anxiety and despondency.”
How can I go out of a banana plantation I have planted that has started bearing fruits?
Before the election Museveni appointed two of his most experienced commanders to oversee the vote in Kampala.
Maj-Gen Paul Lokech is an urban warfare expert credited with subduing Al-Shabaab in the Horn of Africa and killing one of the most wanted Al-Qaeda insurgents, Fazul Abdul Mohammed, in June 2011.
Brig Kayanja Muhanga is a veteran who fought at the treacherous battlefront against Joseph Kony’s feared Lord’s Resistance Army. During the 1990s and 2000s, Kony’s men slaughtered more than 100,000 people and coerced tens of thousands of children into fighting alongside them.
Before coming to power, Museveni famously took part in military operations to topple two Ugandan presidents. One of them was the notorious Idi Amin, who rose from being a cook in the colonial army to becoming a brutal dictator. The other was Milton Obote, the country’s first president, who had been toppled by Amin, then briefly returned to power after Amin was ousted.
The year Museveni came to power Wine was about to turn four.
Even before this election critics highlighted Museveni’s age. Before he ran for his fifth term in 2016, Museveni told supporters he needed to finish the job he had started. “This old man who has saved the country, how do you want him to go?” he said. “How can I go out of a banana plantation I have planted that has started bearing fruits?” Then 71, he insisted he was in excellent health, “save for occasional malaria attacks, coughs or mild allergic reactions in the nose. Even today, there are hardly any physical exertions that I cannot undertake except squatting, which I find a bit uncomfortable these days.” He once tried to appeal to young voters by releasing his own rap song called Do You Want Another Rap? Critics translated it to mean I Want Another Term. Wine represents young Ugandans who desperately want change. Some 80% of the country’s population was born after Museveni came to power in 1986. While about 700,000 young people reach working age every year in Uganda, only 75,000 jobs are created each year.
There has never been a peaceful handover of power in Uganda; Wine was hoping to be the first leader to achieve it.
But as he became the increasing target of violence, he started wearing a bulletproof vest and protective helmet. In December, a bullet was fired through his vehicle’s windscreen, narrowly missing him.
Wine repeatedly lashed the government for corruption. With its 80 ministers, Uganda has one of the largest cabinets in the region. Its parliament has 426 MPs, a bloated political system of patronage which opponents believe Museveni needs to stay in power.
But though Museveni’s family and in-laws are accused of milking the system to get rich, “Sevo”, as the president is popularly known, has relatively modest tastes. He prefers to live a traditional life, tending his Ankole cattle. It was on a visit to Uganda that President Cyril Ramaphosa first encountered these magnificent animals and developed an interest in their survival as a species.
After 35 years and six terms of power, Museveni, believes his political career is anything but endangered. Livingstone Sewanyana, head of Uganda’s Foundation for Human Rights Initiative, told the Financial Times that Museveni had convinced himself that Uganda would fall apart without him. “He doesn’t seem to believe in succession; he doesn’t believe in change. He doesn’t believe in democratic means. It is all about him.”
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.