As Russia's invasion of Ukraine shifts the world order, which side of history do we want to be on?

So, Vladimir Putin’s inner child finally won. Russia invaded Ukraine. A dictatorship struck deep into a democracy. A new imperialism stalks the future. The West is challenged to an  unimaginable degree  and the world will never be the same again.

Ukraine poses no conceivable threat to Russia, but that is not why the Russian leader invaded. He is frightened of democracy. In his own country, political opponents are murdered or jailed after fake trials.

A billionaire tyrant and former senior KGB officer, Putin has hated every minute of post-Soviet Russia and has never hidden his dreams of restoring Russia’s old empire.

Now war is back in Europe and the political and economic consequences are impossible to escape. In the immediate aftermath stock markets collapsed and the price of oil topped $100 a barrel.

Russia and Ukraine together account for close to 30% of global wheat exports. We may feel a long way away but, as a direct result of Russia’s invasion, life in SA will become more expensive.

The Americans and the West’s military alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), were right all along about Putin’s plan to attack. Russian denials were a lie. Now the West must respond with real muscle or go home. Nato must resolutely defend its allies.

Economic sanctions so far are weak and have not deterred Putin. Ukraine’s resistance is magnificent but the Russians  will take the capital Kyiv and will hunt down critics and  overthrow its democratically elected government in order to replace it with a puppet regime.

Russia has sworn to demilitarise and “de-Nazify” Ukraine. SA’s response has improved from feeble to just about OK. We expressed “concern” on the day of invasion and later called for a withdrawal. Oh dear. You will hear no condemnation. Everything about our diplomacy under the ANC suggests that if push came to shove we would stand with Russia, mad as that may be.

But we have been on the edge of diplomatic oblivion before. SA entered World War 2 on the side of the Allies only after the narrowest of votes in parliament. The opposition wanted to fight on the side of  Nazi Germany.

Everyone has a theory about why, but Putin’s basic position is that Ukraine  “threatens” Russia. This would probably be because Kyiv wants to join Nato, to pivot to the West. Putin, feigning delusion or actually deluded (whichever frightens you the most) warned as he announced the invasion that a raft of bordering countries once considered part of Russia’s sphere of influence were still in its sphere of influence.

That’s a direct threat to Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, which joined Nato in 2004. And he warned that any country attempting to stop him would face unimaginable retaliation.

Everything about our diplomacy under the ANC suggests that if push came to shove, we would stand with Russia, mad as that may be 

The West needs to answer a simple question. Is Putin gambling or taking a calculated risk?

They invite different responses but, gambler or risk-taker, he would have understood exactly how Western sanctions might hurt him or Russia and then decided to invade anyway.

Sanctions could take months to “work”. Putin’s economy is relatively unsophisticated but it is a major oil and gas supplier into Europe.

Even the most severe Western sanctions —  breaking diplomatic relations, severing banking and finance links and preventing the sale of gas and oil — would not entrap Putin. He will simply turn to Asia.

The Chinese response will matter. Russia is not much of a market for Chinese exports and it would take an age to send Russian gas to China at scale. And while Putin visited Beijing three weeks ago, the Chinese have a lot to lose in trade with the US and Europe and have already expressed reservations about the invasion.

Needless to say, what matters most here is the South African response. We’re already intertwined with the Russians and Chinese in the Brics alliance, and Putin made a great fuss, and to good effect, of a corruptible leader in former president Jacob Zuma.

We came close to ordering a fleet of nuclear power plants from Moscow just five years ago. And if Putin has a wider ambition after he burns all his bridges with the West, SA will be in his sights. It was Putin who got us into Brics and together we and the Russians could corner platinum group metals. Just imagine — a new world order!

President Cyril Ramaphosa should watch his back.

Last year his deputy, David Mabuza, spent more than a month in Russia supposedly getting medical treatment.

It is inconceivable that he did not meet with Putin, and there is little doubt who  between  Ramaphosa and Mabuza the Russian leader would most prefer to have running our country. And now we know for sure this evil manipulator will kill to get what he wants.