Two years of Covid and vaccination sceptics have taken a toll. I could ignore them, but I’m a liberal conformist. I think that, basically, the right things tend to happen, that the direction of travel tends to be good. I believe that, provided none of us ever shuts up, sceptics too, SA might be OK.
Without scepticism there are no arguments and no ideas. Take climate change. Millions of people think it isn’t real.
They’re sceptical despite the science, the ice shrinkage at the poles, the vanishing permafrost, the flash floods, the heatwaves, the crop failures, the Great Barrier Reef bleach.
Here, the sceptics would have Eskom try its best to keep coal-fired power stations going as long as possible. And then let’s drill for oil and gas offshore. Gas! It’s the New Jerusalem, our saviour.
It’s going to be the magic fuel we use to move from coal to renewables — the wind, solar and battery stuff that isn’t quite up to the job yet. A huge report from the National Business Initiative, the NBI, just said so. This is really big business, your bosses, talking to you.
Its literature says it is a “voluntary coalition of South African and multinational companies, working towards sustainable growth and development in South Africa and the shaping of a sustainable future through responsible business action”.
It just came out with a report recommending we use gas as a transition to renewables. Nonsense. The entire report is a betrayal of tomorrow driven by the fears of foolish old men.
I know it is awful when the lights go off, but ask yourself about how they come back on.
You can have it in a way that lines the pockets of NBI members and their shareholders or you can have it in a way that lines yours. The NBI’s way gives its members huge new revenue streams as we build an infrastructure to transport and burn gas as a “transition”..
Your way is a surplus of wind, solar and battery power and literally never having to worry about our source of energy again. Wind and solar aren’t things you dig for. They’re already around you, literally inside you.
“Transitions” from one energy to another are difficult but the direction of travel matters. Take the folk who scoff at the Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
People like me believe it’s the end of fossil fuels. The sceptics (why are they always so right-wing?) say the West will soon be crawling back to Moscow.
I know it is awful when the lights go off, but ask yourself about how they come back on
It won’t. Nikos Tsafos at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies tracks the energy response. The Germans will now spend an extra €200bn (R3.2-trillion) on renewables by 2026.
They already produce more renewable energy than Eskom, at peak, ever could through coal.
They’ll also stop blocking EU plans to ensure only electronic cars and vans can be sold in the EU from 2035.
The Dutch will double their offshore wind capacity by 2030. France will end subsidies on gas heaters. The Italians have approved six new wind farms on land, and plan more offshore. The Belgians will extend the lives of their nuclear power fleet.
Fossil fuels died the moment Putin gave the order to murder Ukrainians, but even in SA we have just witnessed the glory of foresight in energy.
Anglo American has signed an understanding with the big French power utility EDF to build up to 5,000MW of solar, wind and battery power right here by 2030 to run its entire South African operation, mines and all.
There’s no talk of a transition in the Anglo boardroom. They know a glorious truth — renewables are here, now, and they can be deployed here, now. That 5,000MW is more than even Eskom’s biggest coal burners, Medupi or Kusile, could produce at their peak.
Our fight now is to move the government, and the businesses feeding from it with mouths open at the tender tap, away from seeking excuses to spend money on gas and other so-called transitory systems that delay the inevitable, whatever the cost. They will call it a “just transition” but the fact is that the swifter the transition, the more just it will be.
For our children, we need to get this done quickly. If we do, our exports in eight years could have the cleanest carbon footprint in the world. That’s worth mountains upon mountains of money.
If Anglo American can get to 5,000MW of renewables by 2030 then the rest of the country sure as hell can too. Don’t be frightened.
The ANC never found a crisis it didn’t want to waste but let’s leave it and its government behind. Look up.
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