Trying to control global warming is the world's most ambitious target ever. Welcome to COP26, where delegates from 200 countries representing almost 8-billion people try to thrash out humanity’s future.
What they are working towards
Climate change is linked to extreme weather, rising oceans, melting snowcaps, tornadoes, heat, floods, encroaching deserts and forest fires among other disasters. If we don’t take drastic steps, humanity will hurtle towards the extinction of all life on Earth.
At the gathering in 2015, countries adopted the Paris Agreement to keep global warming “well below” 2ºC above pre-industrial levels. Countries agreed to aim for 1.5ºC.
But temperatures have already risen by 1.1°C-1.3°C since the invention of the steam engine.
So limiting heating to 1.5°C is a colossal task.
The nitty gritty
How can this possibly be achieved?
For starters, the world must make total emissions of carbon dioxide 45% lower in 2030 than they were in 2010, and reduce them to zero by the middle of this century.
So far there’s been a lot of hot air. A UN report released this week warned that current pledges by countries would reduce carbon by only about 7.5% by 2030, far less than the 45% cut scientists say is needed.
António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, described the report as a “thundering wake-up call”.
Brownie points for SA
In the run-up to COP26, countries were asked to submit national plans on emissions cuts — called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — for the next decade. SA was one of the countries that set more ambitious targets for itself.
President Cyril Ramaphosa isn't attending, but he has a local government election (and plenty of hot air at home) to deal with.
Flunking the test
Former US president Donald Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement during his term demonstrated how volatile international co-operation can be.
Some of the biggest greenhouse gas culprits — China (28%), India (7%) and Russia (5%) — have yet to show any real commitment to cleaning up their collective acts. Neither Vladimir Putin nor Xi Jinping are in Glasgow.
Any way you look at it, we're in trouble
Humanity has reached a new milestone in its dominance of the planet. According to a study in Nature last December, human-made objects may now outweigh all living beings on Earth.
Roads, houses, shopping malls and all the other movable and immovable goods made by humankind weigh in at about 1.1-trillion tonnes — equal to the combined weight of all plants, animals, fungi and other organisms on the planet.
In 1900 artificial objects accounted for just 3% of the world’s biomass.
Anthropocene, the age of obscenity?
For the first time humans have power over the Earth as great as the forces of nature. Our use of this power has opened up a new geological epoch that some scientists call the Anthropocene.
Rich country, poor country
Rich countries made their wealth by using dirty energy, so who are they to tell others to clean up their acts?
Then there are the countries who suffer most from climate change, invariably developing nations.
Some of the big debates at COP26 will centre on levelling the playing field.
At the UN climate talks in Copenhagen in 2009, rich countries committed to funding of $100bn (R1.5-trillion) a year to developing countries to limit the damage of climate change. Don't hold your breath.
So what’s the story with population growth?
More people means a bigger carbon footprint.
Ourworldindata.org did some calculations: It took nearly seven centuries for the population to double: from 0.25-billion in the early ninth century to 0.5-billion in the middle of the 16th century.
Things sped up considerably after that and by the middle of the 20th century population growth was spinning out of control.
The fastest doubling of the world population happened between 1950 and 1987, increasing from 2.5-billion to 5-billion people in just 37 years. This is twice the number of people in a little more than one generation.
There are now just under 8-billion people on Earth. Though the population is no longer growing as fast, there will still be 2-billion more people by mid-century.
Urban legend
More than 4-billion people — over half of the world — live in urban areas.
The UN estimates this milestone event — when the number of people in urban areas overtook the number in rural settings — occurred in 2007.
The one percent
Despite this, only 1% of global land is defined as built-up area. If cities get their acts together, we could hugely improve the atmosphere.
Choking to death
Air pollution is one of the world’s leading causes of death, blamed for 5-million deaths each year.
Ye reap what ye sow
How we feed the world is critical to climate change.
Food accounts for over 26% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Half of the world’s habitable land is used for agriculture.
The ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system, making it more acidic and less productive. This, along with practices such as overfishing, threatens marine resources that feed 3.2-billion people.
On the other hand, over 17% of food is wasted, and up to 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions are associated with food that is not consumed, says the UN.
A meaty issue
Estimates vary, but livestock animals are estimated to be responsible for up to 14% of all greenhouse emissions from human activities.
A massive 94% of mammal biomass (excluding humans) is livestock. This means livestock outweighs wild mammals by a factor of 15 to one.
Of the 28,000 species threatened with extinction, agriculture and aquaculture are listed as a threat for 24,000 of them.
Demand for meat is growing: over the past 50 years, meat production has more than tripled.
The beef with beef
A study at the University of Illinois found that animal-based foods account for 57% of agricultural greenhouse gases, versus 29% for food from plants. Beef and cow’s milk alone made up 34%.
The fashion industry is responsible for 10% of annual global carbon emissions, more than all international flights and maritime shipping combined, says the World Bank.
The spectre of Ebola worldwide ...
The 2020 Arctic Report Card warned that the region is heating up more than twice as fast as other parts of the planet. One danger is the thawing permafrost in the Arctic, which is releasing micro-organisms that can cause disease and have not seen daylight for tens of thousands of years.
The result could be catastrophic, with a pandemic of a disease as lethal as Ebola or worse. This alone could drive us to extinction.
Power to the people
Renewables grew almost 5% per year between 2009 and 2019, outpacing fossil fuels at 1.7%, says the UN.
In 2018 coal’s share of global energy supply fell to 27%, the lowest in 15 years.
Legal threats, investor pressure and fear of regulations have led investment in fossil fuels to slump 40% since 2015, says the Economist.
Defective jeans
The fashion industry is responsible for 10% of annual global carbon emissions, more than all international flights and maritime shipping combined, says the World Bank.
At this pace, the fashion industry’s greenhouse gas emissions will surge more than 50% by 2030.
Don't forget the plastic pandemic
Around the world, 1-million plastic drinking bottles are purchased every minute, and 5-trillion single-use plastic bags are used worldwide every year.
At least 8-million tonnes of plastic end up in our oceans every year, and make up 80% of all marine debris, from surface waters to deep-sea sediments.
Scientists are warning politicians not to forget the plastic waste crisis.
Manufacturing plastic items adds to greenhouse gas emissions, and extreme weather such as floods and typhoons associated with a heating planet will disperse and worsen plastic pollution in the sea.
In the end climate change affects everything, and everything affects climate change.
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