Life-size polar bears in life jackets at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow symbolise how wildlife needs rescuing from this man-made catastrophe.
Significantly, for the first time at a COP summit, the role nature can play in saving the planet was highlighted — which could benefit Africa.
“Land and ocean ecosystems are responsible for the removal of 56% of the carbon dioxide and it is important that the role of nature was acknowledged in the text [of the draft agreement adopted by the conference],” said Fernanda Carvalho, World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) climate specialist, in an interview after the draft accord was released.
“I am Brazilian, where the forests are a big issue but their protection is not on track,” said Carvalho. In a positive step, more than 100 countries, with 85% of the forests on Earth, promised to stop deforestation by 2030.
Forests, kelp forests off SA shores and peatlands in the African tropics are among the habitats that absorb carbon dioxide and prevent it entering Earth’s atmosphere.
The Great Green Wall reforestation project in Africa — targeting the revival of 100-million hectares of degraded land, the storing of 250-million tonnes of carbon and the creation of 10-million jobs — gained momentum in Glasgow from VIPs such as Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Britain's Prince Charles and France's President Emmanuel Macron.
However, even though positive deals were being struck on the side, the amount of climate financing in the accord to offset the “permanent losses and damages” of developing countries was slammed by activists as “fuzzy and vague”.
African Climate Alliance spokesperson Ayakha Melithafa said from Glasgow: “This is a big greenwashing event, where countries exploiting the resources of the Global South brag about what they can do, but do not commit.”
At 22 years old the youngest member of SA's Presidential Climate Commission, Melithafa joined tens of thousands of protesters last weekend wearing a “Planet is Burning” T-shirt, demanding firm commitments from world leaders meeting behind closed doors at COP26. “There is no Planet B” and “Liar, Liar, Earth on Fire” were among the myriad placards waved in the streets.
Standing knee-deep in the ocean off the Pacific island of Tuvala, lawmaker Simon Kofe recorded a speech for COP26, to show how rising seas threaten the survival of small island states, which are among those least responsible for climate change.
Hard hit by faster rising temperatures than other continents, Africa could benefit from COP26’s recognition that nature and climate change are inextricably connected, since the continent needs support in protecting its rich biodiversity and vulnerable species.
Countries exploiting the resources of the Global South brag about what they can do, but do not commit
— Ayakha Melithafa, of the African Climate Alliance
Dr Harriet Davies-Mostert, head of conservation at the Endangered Wildlife Trust (EWT), said: “South Africa is likely to be hammered by changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. Biodiversity is the basic building block we need to protect everything, to handle the climate shocks that are coming.”
Higher temperatures, intense and longer droughts, more storms and flooding are forecast for SA and the rest of the continent.
Southern and central Africa are the worst affected but the continent has many vulnerable hotspots, said professor Guy Midgley, a leading climate scientist from Stellenbosch University.
“Extreme climate events in Africa are increasingly likely ... causing havoc in urban and rural areas,” he said.
“We already see the adverse effects in the northwest, like the Richtersveld and Namaqualand, where succulent species are dying back because of very severe, long-term drought. When some of the toughest plants are keeling over, this is a worrying sign.”
The Kruger National Park, in the Savannah ecosystem, is another area where species have been affected. Studies by the late Wits distinguished professor Bob Scholes, who was director of the Global Change Institute, have shown shifts in keystone species like the mopane worm in response to climate and land degradation.
Higher than normal numbers of the edible mopane worm influence the ecology of mopane woodlands.
“We see the impact of climate change on plants and animals, terrestrial and marine, across all the principal biomes,” said climate scientist Emma Archer.
“The flip side of this is that we have an amazing rich repository of biodiversity, which can help combat climate change.”
A giant “sea bamboo” kelp forest off Cape Point plays a vital role in capturing carbon dioxide in the water, thereby cleaning up the ocean’s lungs, and kelp protects against storm surges and some of the effects of rising seas on the shore.
When the environment and wildlife suffer, so do people. In Kenya, when livestock animals die during drought, the genital mutilation and early marriage of girls becomes more common, researchers have found. When families are struggling, the cattle provided to the bride’s family as part of the marriage tradition support them.
Africa is particularly vulnerable to the damage caused by extreme events as it is heating up faster than the global average, and is forecast to have longer and more frequent heatwaves.
New projections released at COP26 — that the planet will heat up by 2.4°C if countries carry on as usual — could mean temperatures rising by 3.5°C to 4°C for much of southern Africa, said Midgley. This is significantly more than the target of a rise of no more than 1.5°C
Water security is a critical issue. Professor Mark New, director of the African Climate & Development Initiative at the University of Cape Town, said: “All the projections for rainfall and evaporation in the future for SA show progressively higher evaporation and progressively lower rainfall across nearly all the country.
“So, for each fraction of a degree above the target of 1.5°C the earth warms, there will be greater reduction in water availability in SA.”
But the future is not all bleak, with pockets of ecosystem recovery expanding across SA. Environmental organisations, including the WWF-SA and EWT, are working with communities to offer support and solutions to the climate threats.
For example, the EWT is piloting a project in the Karoo with farmers to protect the watercourses where the critically endangered riverine rabbit competes with sheep for food.
“We are looking at models of compensation,” said Davies -Mostert.
We need to think of solutions that have never been tried before
— Dr Harriet Davies-Mostert of EWT
“We need to think of solutions that have never been tried before and how to unlock livelihoods.”
In the Drakensberg, the EWT is exploring the benefits of carbon trading with landowners who commit to biodiversity stewardship. “We have signed up some farmers in the last few months,” Davies -Mostert said.
The EWT is working with emerging farmers in Limpopo's Waterberg to make them more resilient against stock losses and lessen the clash with predators from surrounding game reserves.
However, even though biodiversity has come to the fore at COP26, the focus echoes that of previous summits — the role of fossil fuels and cutting their use to stay under 1.5°C.
New said: “The big SA story is the announcement of R131bn funding by several countries to help accelerate a transition out of coal, but we are still waiting to see what this will actually look like in detail ... and what kinds of strings will be attached.”
SA has the highest carbon intensity among the G20 countries.
Most of the targets promised by SA are “conditional” and can only happen if international finance is provided.
“Like many African countries,” said New, “SA is struggling to keep things running as they are.”
The promised funding for the transition out of coal is a positive signal and shows political will to co-operate with SA, said Dr Prabhat Upadhyaya of WWF-SA — who noted that the biggest delegation at the climate summit was fielded by the fossil fuel industry.
Also of concern was the underrepresentation of delegates from the Global South, restricted by Covid-19 vaccine shortages and requirements for travelling to Scotland. Even in Glasgow, delegates found themselves excluded from attending events in person when small numbers of tickets ran out.
COP26, as with prior summits, has produced positive pledges and signals while falling short of the critical steps needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
But southern Africa needs “every 0.1°C” decline in global warming, said Midgley, urging SA to put its foot to the floor in promoting renewable energy and exiting coal.
If not, SA could be left behind the rest of the world, and its on-off power problems will continue long past this summer.
KEY POINTS OF THE DRAFT DEAL
- Countries to submit long-term strategies for net-zero emissions by end 2022
- More help to vulnerable countries to cope with deadly effects of global warming
- First mention of the role of nature-based solutions for climate adaptation and mitigation
- First mention of phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels, but no deadlines set
- Accelerate phasing out of coal — no dates or targets set
- UN secretary-general to convene world leaders in 2023 to report on progress
- SA brings forward net-zero emissions from 2050 to 2030.
IS THIS THE BEST THEY COULD DO?
Kenyan climate and environmental activist Elizabeth Wathuti:
“In this past year, both of our rainy seasons have failed and scientists say that it may be another 12 months before the waters return again. Meanwhile, our rivers are running dry. Our harvests are failing. Our storehouses stand empty. Our animals and people are dying.”
UN secretary-general António Guterres:
“Sea level rise has doubled from 30 years ago. Oceans are hotter than ever, parts of the Amazon rainforest emit more carbon than they absorb, and in the last decade about 4-billion people were affected by events related to the changing climate ... Enough of burning and drilling and mining our way deeper. We are digging our own graves.”
Greenpeace International executive director Jennifer Morgan:
“This draft deal is not a plan to solve the climate crisis, it’s an agreement that we’ll all cross our fingers and hope for the best ... If this is the best they can come up with, then it’s no wonder kids today are furious at them.”
British naturalist David Attenborough
“If working apart we are a powerful force to destabilise our planet, surely working together we are powerful enough to save it? In my lifetime I've witnessed a terrible decline. In yours, you could and should witness a wonderful recovery.”
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa
“We need to act with urgency and ambition to cut greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a low-carbon economy. Many of our peer countries have already begun. But the only way for a transition to be successful is if there is broad commitment to a transition that is just — a journey to net-zero that leaves no-one behind.”
WWF global lead on climate & energy Manuel Pulgar-Vidal:
“With the world still on course for dangerous global warming, it is essential that ministers work to include a clear plan to close the 2030 ambition gap and the time frame to do this ... negotiators must improve the areas of the text that are still weak. This must be a floor, not a ceiling.”
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