“The Durban floods a year ago were the worst but they were not the first,” says climatology professor Francois Engelbrecht, head of the Global Change Institute at Wits University. In April 2022, at least 459 people died in floods worsened by the climate crisis, scores are still missing, thousands lost their homes and damage amounted to nearly R20bn.
Northern KwaZulu-Natal is the most at risk of flooding and cyclones in South Africa. More than 500 people died in floods in KwaZulu-Natal in 1987 and, in 2019, more than 80 people died in that province and the Eastern Cape. Last month, Port St Johns was once again under water from flooding.
“Extreme weather events have increased in the Southern Africa region, and every region of the world, because we are warming the planet,” Engelbrecht says. Southern Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world, putting it more at risk of disasters.
University of the Free State physical geographer Dr Adriaan van der Walt says some regions in Africa are expected to heat up “twice as fast as the global average”.
This sets the stage for violent storms and cyclones. “There is more energy in the atmosphere for more intense storm systems because we are warming the planet, and there is more rainfall than ever before because there is more evaporation from the world’s oceans warming.”
Vulnerable communities are in immense danger and the social dimensions could be catastrophic
— Prof Francois Engelbrecht
Many more people may die in flooding and tropical cyclones in Southern Africa unless cities develop early warning systems and community evacuation procedures and improve management of stormwater drains, Van der Walt says.
“This could save thousands, or tens of thousands of lives in the next 10 years.”
“Community-based flood early warning systems are an important part of the solution,” Engelbrecht says. In the Durban floods, Quarry Road West residents were safely evacuated because they trusted an early warning system piloted by the University of KwaZulu-Natal with the informal settlement.
Residents of informal settlements often fear leaving their homes unprotected despite the deadly dangers they may face. When tropical cyclone Idai hit the Beira area in Mozambique in March 2019 with winds of more than 200km/h, 1,300 people died. “You cannot survive this if you live in informal housing,” says Engelbrecht.
“The science is often good enough to give early warnings of tropical cyclones but disaster services get overwhelmed. Even if authorities warned communities in Beira, they could not evacuate half a million people, which is often achieved on the eastern seaboard of the US.”
Idai was the biggest natural disaster to devastate the region, wreaking havoc across Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe. Tropical cyclone Freddy broke records from February to March this year by hitting the coasts of Mozambique and Madagascar twice, killing at least 500 people in its path through those two countries and Malawi.
Before it made landfall, Freddy weakened from a category 5 hurricane to a category 3. “Tropical cyclone Freddy is one of only a few category 5 hurricanes to develop in the southwest Indian Ocean,” says Engelbrecht, warning that it is “only a matter of time before a category 5 tropical cyclone makes landfall in either Madagascar or Mozambique”.
For the first time in recorded history, an intense tropical cyclone could come as far south as Maputo and Richards Bay, he says. “South Africa needs to learn how to evacuate thousands of people out of the path of destruction of such a storm.”
Climate advocacy lawyer Brandon Abdinor, based at the Centre for Environmental Rights, says cities need to adapt and prepare proactively for climate-triggered events.
“It is clear what is coming. The infrastructure needs to be more climate resilient, including settlements, and municipalities need to beef up their stormwater management to cope with increased rainfall,” says Abdinor, who has inspected flood damage in Durban.
“The centre is investigating potential damages claims by flood-affected residents and others against, among others, the global fossil fuel giants whose emissions have caused most of the global warming that is now causing climate change-exacerbated extreme weather events like the Durban floods.
“We need to get off coal and fossil fuels as quickly as possible to reduce greenhouse gasses”.
The extreme rainfall in Durban from April 11-12 that triggered the floods was twice as likely because of climate change and 4% to 8% more intense
— 2x more likely
Millions of Southern Africans live below the flood line and in informal housing, putting them in danger of flash floods and mud slides, says Engelbrecht, who leads the development of Africa-based climate change projection models. “Vulnerable communities are in immense danger and the social dimensions could be catastrophic.
“African cities are growing fast and informally, and in the context of climate change and extreme events, this is a recipe for disaster. The red lights are flickering.”
TROPICAL CYCLONES THREAT
- March 14 2019: Tropical cyclone Idai hit Mozambique as a category 3 cyclone. Idai claimed more than 1,300 lives on its path through Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, and displaced about 1.5-million people.
- April 25 2019: Tropical cyclone Kenneth slammed into northern Mozambique as a category 4 cyclone, with winds of 220km/hour flattening entire villages. Kenneth claimed at least 38 lives and displaced tens of thousands of people. Kenneth hit Mozambique six weeks after Idai — the first time two cyclones have struck in such close succession in the region.
- February to March 2023: Tropical cyclone Freddy hit Madagascar on February 21 (category 3) and Mozambique on February 24 (category 1), before moving on to Zimbabwe. The storm broke records by hitting Mozambique a second time on March 11 and then slamming into Malawi. Freddy caused at least 500 deaths through flooding and mudslides and displaced more than half a million people. By March 14 Freddy dissipated, making it the longest tropical cyclone in the region. Before it hit land, Freddy was a category 5 hurricane.
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