Do you know where Azerbaijan and its ancient capital Baku are? This month, the petrostate wedged between Europe and Asia hosted the UN’s 29th climate conference, COP29, which had failed by Saturday night — nearly 24 hours into overtime — to reach a climate finance deal between the Global South and the Global North or agree on ambition for the world to transition away from fossil fuels.
South Africa was among the countries in the Global South that on Thursday rejected the offer of $250bn (about R4.5-trillion) a year promised by rich countries — rising to $1.3-trillion a year of public and private money by 2035 — a proposal which Kenya’s Ali Mohamed, chair of the African Group, slammed as “totally unacceptable and inadequate”.
Reuters reported on Saturday that the EU, US and other wealthy countries had raised their offer to $300bn a year to 2035. But by 6pm on Saturday, parties had failed to reach consensus on the climate finance needed for developing countries to green their economies, adapt to climate shocks like floods and droughts and recover from the damage.
Lisakhanya Mathiso of the African Climate Alliance, who returned from smoggy Baku this week, said: “The delegates were not planning (or taking) any initiative. They were pushing everything to next year, warming up for COP30 in Brazil.” At COP30, countries must submit new road maps for climate action.
Money also dominated the UN’s biggest-ever biodiversity conference — COP16 in Cali, Colombia — which failed to reach consensus on the finance needed to protect biodiversity.
COP29 was just as fraught. From afar, it appeared to be a chaotic soccer match between the developed and the developing world that went into overtime in which the Azeri president failed to ref fairly and there was an awful lot of ball-passing and fouling. What was needed was a sprint to get a strong deal over the finish line to stop the planet overheating further.
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to the more frequent and intense floods, heatwaves and droughts, as well as other climate shocks, triggered by the planet heating up, while the developed world is responsible for most of the planet-warming emissions.
‘A crisis of life’
Dr Githinji Gitahi, CEO of Amref Health Africa, illustrated this point by saying: “Consider the Democratic Republic of Congo. With a per capita carbon emission of just 0.04 metric tons, it would take the average Congolese citizen more than 400 years to match the emissions of a citizen in a high-income country such as the US, Canada or Australia.
Global warming is no longer an issue for the environment, but a crisis of life itself
— Dr Githinji Gitahi, Amref Health Africa
“For many Africans ... the immediate threat of climate change is not their carbon footprint but their vulnerability to its effects.
“Global warming is no longer an issue for the environment but a crisis of life itself.”
South Africa has the highest per capita carbon emissions on the continent and is the 14th-highest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world because of its reliance on coal. At COP29, Eskom presented its plan for a transition to renewable energy that does not leave communities near its power plants stranded.
Youth protests in Baku and appeals by athletes, including Brazilian soccer star Ronaldinho Gaúcho and Olympian and 800m world-record holder David Rudisha from Kenya, reminded delegates that decisions they took now would affect their (and our) future.
Cutting emissions
Halfway through COP29, Brazil hosted the G20 talks, where its president, Lula da Silva, urged rich countries to move their net zero (emissions) targets forward five to 10 years. G20 countries produce 80% of the world’s emissions and 85% of global GDP.
South African minister of forestry, fisheries & the environment Dion George was a crucial player at COP29 as the co-chair, with Tore Onshuus Sandvik of Norway, of consultations about mitigation.
Saudi Arabia, which led the Arab countries, was obstructive, stating, for instance, in the Thursday plenary that “the Arab group will not accept any text that targets specific sectors, including fossil fuels”.
Rising epidemics and adaptation
Climate crises affect many sectors, including health. Pathogens and infectious disease outbreaks are crossing borders as rising temperatures, extreme climate events and climate migration increase.
Releasing the 2024 edition of the "Climate Change & Epidemics" report — compiled by more than 1,000 scientists and policymakers — lead author Prof Tulio de Oliveira said on Thursday that 2024 was a “record year for new and amplified epidemics”, including the spread of the West Nile virus, growing resistance to malaria drugs, and the largest recorded cholera outbreaks in recent history.
“Without significant reductions in carbon emissions, we, along with future generations, will face more frequent and unusual diseases,” said De Oliveira, director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation at Stellenbosch University.
South African cities and provinces are taking steps to adjust their water, food, health, housing, urban planning, emergency and other systems to cope with the climate crisis, as well as protect their threatened biodiversity.
Nature under threat
Nature helps to combat heat and shelter communities from climate chaos — for example, coastal mangrove swamps protect against storm surges and flooding, and are a nursery for fish and shrimp. Meanwhile, the ocean is a carbon sink, and ecosystems deliver vital services such as freshwater to people.
We are not moving fast enough … and there is a massive deficit in funding
— Kate Handley, Biodiversity Law Centre
Yet progress in protecting threatened habitats and species and implementing the 23 targets agreed in 2022 under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in 2022 has been slow, the 2024 United Nations Biodiversity Conference (COP16) in Cali, Colombia, heard earlier this month, and once again a lack of money needed to achieve goals was a stumbling block.
“We are not moving fast enough ... and there is a massive deficit in funding,” said Kate Handley, executive director of the Biodiversity Law Centre in Cape Town.
30x30 goal
The COP15 headline target of protecting 30% of the world’s land, freshwater sources and oceans by 2030 still looks distant, 2024 studies show.
Just an estimated 8.4% of ocean and coastal areas and 17.5% of land and inland expanses are protected, the "Protected Planet Report 2024" shows. To reach the 30x30 global target, “a land area roughly the size of Brazil and Australia combined and a sea one larger than the Indian Ocean [need] to be designated by 2030”, the scientists estimated.
Paying for nature and supporting its custodians
One of the few wins at COP16 was an agreement to establish a permanent body for indigenous peoples and local communities — who, with an estimated 40% of intact ecosystems in their hands, are the guardians of nature.
Mitigation: countries need to reduce their reliance on oil, coal and gas for energy security and transition to clean renewable energy to cut greenhouse gas emissions and reduce those emissionsfrom sectors such as likeagriculture.
Adaptation: countries must build resilience to climate shocks and develop early-warning systems to protect the most vulnerable.
— EXPLAINER BOX
As the chair of the UN’s permanent forum on indigenous issues, Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, said in Cali: “Indigenous people are the Messis [and] the Cristiano Ronaldos of biodiversity protection. Pass us the ball!”
COP16 also agreed that big business — which profits from products such as pharmaceuticals and cosmetics developed from nature’s genetic resources (plants, animals and other species) — should pay 1% of its profits towards protecting nature and indigenous peoples.
Africa was ahead of other continents at COP16 in delivering either biodiversity targets (as South Africa did) or national biodiversity plans at or ahead of the conference.
Dr Michel Masozera, director of policy and institutional partnerships for Africa at the Wildlife Conservation Society, said that globally progress had been disappointing, and countries were “far below their targets”.
Delays cost lives
At the opening of COP29, UN secretary-general António Guterres reminded the world that time was not on our side.
“Exhibit A: 2024. With the hottest day on record ... the hottest months on record ... this is almost certain to be the hottest year on record — and [it’s] a masterclass in climate destruction: families running for their lives before the next hurricane strikes, biodiversity destroyed in sweltering seas, workers and pilgrims collapsing in insufferable heat, floods tearing through communities and tearing down infrastructure, and children going to bed hungry as droughts ravage crops. And all these disasters, and more, are being supercharged by human-made climate change. No country is spared,” he said.
His exhortation to world leaders later that failure was not an option given the stakes seemed to have fallen on deaf ears at COP29 until the last minute. Now the world is pinning its hopes on COP30, where countries are expected to deliver more ambitious climate action plans before it is too late for the planet.
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