The ANC — Africa’s oldest and one of its greatest liberation movements, which inspired generations at home and abroad — has become, because of endemic corruption, incompetence and indifference, a rural and Bantustan party.
The outcome of the local government elections, which continued the pattern of the 2016 decline of the ANC’s support in metropolitan areas, has confirmed this transformation of the party.
It is in line with the typical trajectory of decline of dominant African liberation movements, which — following years of corruption, incompetence and unresponsiveness — see their long-suffering voters finally deserting them, starting with the poor, working and middle classes in the urban areas; leaving them with strongholds only among the rural poor.
As the working and middle classes and businesses ditch failing liberation movements, these movements strengthen their ties with traditional leaders, chiefs and kings in rural areas, who bring them the rural vote in return for patronage. This is the case, for example, with Zimbabwe’s Zanu-PF, which is now a largely rural party aligned with traditional leaders. The ANC is following Zanu-PF’s example.
Most of SA’s major metropolitan areas are now in opposition hands, or, in many places where the ANC is in control, it is either with narrow victories or governing in coalitions. Being in full control in rural towns only has significant implications.
SA’s municipalities are essentially divided into two groups: those that are generating revenue — with middle classes, property owners and significant industries, which are mostly based in the metropolitan areas — and those based mostly in rural areas that are not generating revenue.
Most of the revenue-generating municipalities in urban areas are now in opposition hands. Where the ANC has regained control of such cities, it is with reduced majorities.
Overall, the ANC has maintained control in those rural municipalities that do not have significant tax bases, businesses, industries and a middle class that is not dependent on the government. Such rural municipalities are depend on transfers from the national government — and are therefore heavily dependent on the national fiscus.
The communities in many of these rural municipalities under ANC control mostly depend on government grants. In rural municipalities, the local state itself is a significant employer of those in jobs, or through tenders and contracts.
Although in power, the ANC has already lost its leading role in the public discourse because many of its continually recycled leaders appear so incompetent, stuck in outdated Cold War rhetoric and without humility. It is difficult to take them seriously. The ANC has also already lost its moral power and credibility because of the systemic corruption, incompetence and unaccountability of its leaders.
Being a rural and former Bantustan party will mean that the youth — which any party needs to remain in power in the long term — professionals and businesses will desert the party en masse, as has been the case with Zanu-PF.
The ANC will then be deprived of new talent, new capacity and new ideas — necessary to renew the party. The ANC’s ability to influence public debate, set the public agenda and persuade citizens to accept its views will be further diminished.
Unless it finds the political will to renew itself, by getting rid of the corrupt, the incompetent and the tribalists, the party will continue its downward slide among the working and middle classes and business in the urban areas in the 2024 national elections.
The party will then drop at a national election level to the lower 40% or even upper 30%, and will need a coalition to govern at national level, or be in opposition. In such a scenario, the ANC will at the provincial level get enough votes to govern in the rural provinces of Limpopo, Eastern Cape, North West and Mpumalanga — where there are large pockets of former Bantustans and a significant presence of traditional leaders, chiefs and kings.
On current evidence it does not appear that the ANC leadership has the political will to make the tough changes, such as immediately getting rid of all those who are corrupt, incompetent or tribalist, even if it means unleashing another breakaway. For President Cyril Ramaphosa to continue with his “unity” strategy of keeping them in the party or arguing, like former president Thabo Mbeki, that the ANC is “too big to fail”, will accelerate the demise of the party.
• Gumede is associate professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and author of "Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times" (Tafelberg)
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