Early 2022 is far too late for SA finally to implement a Covid-19 vaccine mandate. The policy is long overdue, and in the wake of this week’s surge in daily infections due to the Omicron variant, it is a measure whose time is now, not later.
Indeed, President Cyril Ramaphosa should have followed the international lead on mandates back in late September when it became clear that daily vaccination rates had begun to plateau and then dip below a daily average of about 200,000 jabs per day. Once this momentum was lost, it was clear that December’s deadline for achieving population immunity would be missed.
The government’s target of 250,000 doses administered per weekday is both good and achievable, and it requires a robust policy and regulatory framework of incentives and disincentives to drive up daily vaccinations as a matter of urgency.
If musings from the government’s consultations with the National Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac) are to be believed, the broad consensus in favour of mandatory vaccination which has been reached between labour, the government and business paves the way for the urgent implementation of a mandate — which should happen in a matter of days, rather than weeks.
SA’s socioeconomic health and prosperity can no longer be held to ransom by people who are dragging their feet about getting vaccinated — be they vaccine-reluctant, vaccine-sceptical or vaccine-complacent. It is common cause that we have ample doses; our economy is on its knees, the elderly and vulnerable are awaiting their booster shots — it’s time we get it together.
Between the Omicron variant and the month-long “Dezemba” festivities that have already kicked off in SA, we can be certain that densely packed gatherings will be plentiful, and a wave of holiday travel from cities to villages and coastal towns will render people in their millions vulnerable.
Earlier this week, Stats SA's latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey reported a half-percentage-point increase in unemployment to 34.9% — the highest rate since the survey’s inception in 2008. We simply cannot afford one more day of risk-adjusted level increases and hard lockdowns when vaccination has proven to be effective at staving off serious illness and death.
Only governments that follow the science unapologetically and implement policy for the good of the population will be able effectively to lead their people through the ravages of this pandemic
And even though businesses and educational institutions like Standard Bank, Discovery and Wits University are leading the way in enforcing a vaccine mandate, the impending holiday season means that these institutions can only meaningfully bring these policies on stream in the new year.
Over the holiday season, the primary responsibility for boosting vaccination numbers falls on the government. The only question that remains is: which mandatory vaccination policy will get SA to 250,000 doses administered daily before the year is out?
I recently returned to SA after spending a couple of weeks in Europe (before rising infection numbers in countries like Germany and Austria forced the cancellation of a number of the meetings I was due to attend). There, the vaccine mandate has taken one of three forms, depending on the government in office and the severity of vaccine hesitancy in the general population.
The first is incentive-based: in France, a refusal to be vaccinated keeps almost all public spaces and social interactions out of reach. In Paris, I was required to present my vaccination certificate — which now resides on my phone for easy access — and have the accompanying QR code scanned to be allowed access to most buildings, from coffee shops and restaurants to museums, hotels and hair salons. After much resistance, the French people have largely accepted the mandate. The obstinately unvaccinated have to stay home, where they don’t pose a danger to the general public, and everyone else’s lives are returning to a semblance of normalcy.
The second mandate places curbs on the movement of the unvaccinated, a policy already in force in Austria and soon to be introduced in Germany. Dubbed “a lockdown of the unvaccinated” by incoming German chancellor Olaf Scholz, the policy places the same restrictions on unvaccinated people as those which were in place before the Covid-19 vaccine became available. These include a ban on access to leisure venues such as cinemas, bars and restaurants, as well as curbs on non-essential shopping.
The German government is in consultations with the country’s ethics council, which will provide guidance on a policy of compulsory vaccination — the third option in the arsenal of interventions. If the law is passed by the Bundestag, compulsory vaccination could be in force in Germany by February 2022. The Austrian government, too, plans to introduce compulsory vaccination early in the new year.
Ramaphosa’s recently announced task team should focus on investigating the legal and ethical implications of the latter two policies, rather than delaying implementation of the first.
Unlike compulsory universal vaccination, a vaccine mandate remains within the bounds of incentives-based policymaking and will easily pass both legal and constitutional muster in SA. Only the governments that follow the science unapologetically and implement policy for the good of the population will be able effectively to lead their people through the ravages of this pandemic.
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