I’m not sure exactly what is going on in Ukraine, but there is a clear and present danger of Very Bad Things happening (again) in SA. The warning signs are glaringly apparent for anyone who cares to see them. Unfortunately, most don’t.
It’s not like we haven’t had enough time or evidence to become concerned.
In 2019, the Gauteng City-Region Observatory released a paper by statistical analyst Mark Orkin that dissected data collected from 30,000 South Africans and came to the conclusion that hostile attitudes on their own do not cause outbreaks of xenophobic violence, and nor do objective circumstances such as unemployment and poverty.
For the terrible events we witnessed in 2008 and at other junctures to occur, a third “trigger event” has to be present. Anger, need, and some motivating driving force form the unholy trinity of what no-one wants to happen in SA again, yet careless trigger-fingers are being waved around by more than one opportunistic leader.
As Orkin put it in 2019: “It may be that out-of-school youth are no less or more of a ‘ticking time-bomb’ for xenophobia, potentially to be mobilised by self-interested businessmen or politicians, than everyone else who is driven to worry and depression by the configuration of poverty, hunger, unemployment and perhaps also informal residence.”
In an astute analysis on Sunday Times Daily, Patrick Bulger writes: “Our politicians have been shameless in stoking xenophobia under the guise of a ‘man in the street’ type policy, which panders to prejudice and gives a nudge of assent to the voter that a dash of xenophobia is natural, not to be confused with ‘violent xenophobia’.”
Foreigners are sitting ducks when it comes to the search for scapegoats on whom to pin the blame for unemployment, poverty and degradation, but these claims are false and pernicious.
In 2018, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development published the results of a research project, carried out in partnership with the International Labour Organisation, that analysed the economic impact of immigrants on the labour market, economic growth and public finance in 10 countries.
The South African segment of this report, co-authored by Wits University economics professor Tendai Gwatidzo, was titled “How immigrants contribute to SA’s economy”.
The study concluded: “Immigrants contribute considerably to SA’s economy. In contrast to popular perception, immigration is not associated with a reduction of the employment rate of the native-born population in SA, and some groups of immigrants are likely to increase employment opportunities for the native-born.
"In part due to the high employment rate of the immigrant population itself, immigrants also raise the income per capita in SA.
Foreigners are sitting ducks when it comes to the search for scapegoats on whom to pin the blame
“In addition, immigrants have a positive impact on the government’s fiscal balance, mostly because they tend to pay more in taxes. Policies focused on immigrant integration and fighting discrimination would further enhance the economic contribution of immigrants in SA.”
It is unlikely that the leader of the red-beret brigade, or any other ambitious politico calling for “action”, will have read this report. Or perhaps they did but simply don’t care because it serves them better to be seen as crusaders fighting for South Africans against the invasion of “job-stealing” masses.
Civil society needs to call a halt to these dangerous and inflammatory practices. The Ahmed Kathrada Foundation issued a statement this week that read: “Blaming migrants for our country’s woes is not the answer! We call on all political parties to desist from inflaming xenophobic tensions.
"Similar to what we saw during July 2021, we are repulsed at how poverty, inequality and existing social tensions are weaponised to gain political clout. We call on communities to refuse to be party to accepting and spreading xenophobic sentiment.”
That goes for individuals too.
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