Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a more unpredictable world

Russia’s wrong war with Ukraine is remaking the post-Cold War world, making redundant many global institutions established to keep international peace and forcing countries to prioritise energy security and increase military spending.

Navigating this new, more complex, uncertain and unpredictable world — where the ideologies of the past, old institutions and old methods of analysis will become largely irrelevant — will demand fresh ideas, imagination and new ways of analysing.

The world has now changed into a multipolar one, moving away from the domination of the US-led global order which has held sway in the post-Cold War era; a world where power will become more evenly spread around the globe.

Since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the communist alliance led by the Soviet Union, the US/EU-led Western alliance has dominated global political and economic power, institutions and ideology. This has now come to an end.

It is likely that instead of one or two powers dominating the world, we will see a world where there is not one dominant power — as in the case of the US in the post-Cold War era — or two,  as was the case with the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but multiple power poles.

The US’s shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan last year when the Taliban took over was a symbol of the loss of its global hegemony. Russian President Vladimir Putin, a strategic thinker, had likely observed this and tried — before launching his wrong war against Ukraine — to refashion the old Soviet Union’s alliance against the US/EU-dominated world, but this time with old allies as well as new emerging powers.

However, Russia’s war against Ukraine, which unleashed fierce resistance, global outrage and devastating US/EU economic sanctions, has meant that Russia is unlikely to be at the forefront of any new alternative to Western hegemony.

Many of the global multilateral organisations that anchored the post-Cold War consensus — whether the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, International Finance Corp and World Trade Organisation — have also lost their credibility.

Sadly, these institutions have in the past been dominated by the US/EU, often purely for self-interest rather than for the global good — which has undermined their authority, effectiveness and credibility with the majority of countries. This fostered a global climate where it appears dominant countries can get away with breaking global political, economic, legal, market and trade rules for self-interest — while developing countries cannot.

In the world after the war in Ukraine, global institutions, laws and rules will have to be collectively transformed or abolished and new, more relevant and consensual ones created, or there will be a breakdown of the global rule of law. This will result in a downward spiral into more conflicts and eventually into a nuclear World War 3.

This new world will increasingly be divided between countries that have nuclear military capabilities and those that do not. It is likely that many countries, having seen how Russia used its military power to try to dominate the US, EU and Nato, will desperately try to acquire or shore up nuclear military capabilities.

Here is an opportunity for SA to quickly expand its renewable energy production

The Ukraine war will also make countries prioritise domestic energy security to ensure they are not dependent on other countries. The recent surge towards renewable energy may be put on hold as some countries may return to coal, nuclear and shale gas, if they have it.

European countries that have depended on Russia for oil and gas are now frantically looking for their own sources of energy, including coal, nuclear, shale gas and renewables. Many countries will also increase military spending. A case in point is Germany, which has decided to increase its spending on defence to more than 2% of its economic output — a big policy shift which has been prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Here is an opportunity for SA to quickly expand its renewable energy production, not only for domestic use and as a catalyst that has the potential to create one of the greatest post-apartheid economic transformations, but for export around the world as a new source of potentially fabulous income.

In the new post-war world, SA has to pursue a foreign policy that is strategic to its own economic interests, which will stimulate economic growth, employment and stability at home. This means partnering with other countries not based on past ideology and personal connections, but on SA’s development, democracy and peace interests.

• Gumede is associate professor in the School of Governance at Wits University and author of 'South Africa in BRICS' (Tafelberg)