The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been raging for almost three weeks. The 77-year reign of peace in Europe was shattered in the early hours of February 24 when Russian troops moved into Ukrainian territory dropping bombs on targeted sites.
The war has claimed the lives of more than 600 civilians and condemned almost 3-million to seeking refuge in other countries. However, while the bombs are exploding in Ukraine, quite far from Africa’s shores, the ramifications of the war have a global reach, which Africa will not escape. It is as much an African problem as it is a global one.
This is because the conflict has occurred in an area that constitutes a vital link in the global network of supply chains on which Africa and other continents depend either directly or indirectly. While Ukraine and Russian economies make up a combined 2.09% of the global economy, they supply crucial products and services whose shortage is likely to cripple global food and energy supplies.
Russia is the third-largest oil exporter in the world after the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. In 2020, it accounted for 11% of total global oil production. Moscow is also the top exporter of natural gas in the world, supplying about 40% of Europe’s gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that passes through Ukraine.
As such, the war in Ukraine, combined with the sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU and the US, was certain to rattle the global energy markets. Global oil prices rose to $111 following the invasion and the sanctions imposed by the US and the EU, which made supplies uncertain. While the oil price has since dropped below $100 as supply fears ease in response to the ceasefire talks, there is no telling what the future holds.
With Africa depending almost completely on the global market for the supply of petroleum products, the rise in oil prices will lead to inflation in commodity prices on the continent, especially food and fuel.
For example, in SA, consumer price inflation is expected to rise among basic commodities such as fuel (4.82%), bread and cereals (3.16%) and public transport (2.43%) as a result of the war. More directly, Russia and Ukraine are important suppliers of agricultural products to Africa, having exported almost $7bn (R106.6bn) worth in 2020.
Wheat is the most significant export, constituting about $5bn of total agricultural exports. As such, the disruption of the food supply chains, especially the closure of ports by Ukraine and Russia, will add to food shortages and food insecurity in Africa.
These global shocks — the pandemic and the conflict — must serve as a wake-up call for Africa to urgently find ways of creating regional value chains to shield the continent and its people from external shocks that are beyond its control
This will likely see prices on the continent rise beyond the reach of the majority of Africans. This is a recipe for possible political instability as more and more people will struggle just to survive. Moreover, sanctions on Russia will also affect the global shipping market, which carries 90% of world trade. Russia and Ukraine reportedly control 15% (more than 270,000 seafarers) of the global shipping workforce who operate the cargo vessels. As Africa is heavily dependent on the sea trade for its exports and imports, the disruption will negatively affect the flow of the continent’s trade.
The foregoing shows that Africa is part of a global village that is getting smaller and smaller as a result of advancements in communication and transport technology. What happens in Eastern Europe has a significant impact on Africa’s political and economic environment. Hence, Africa is a legitimate actor in global affairs and has legitimate interests in ensuring a peaceful global environment under which it can fulfil its development potential. It is time Africa asserts its agency in global issues and becomes more proactive in maintaining global peace.
It is disappointing that Africa appeared divided over the Russia-Ukraine issue as demonstrated by the outcome of the vote on the UN resolution to condemn the invasion — 28 African nations voted in favour of the motion, 17 abstained and 1 voted against. Such a divided approach undermines the power of the African voting bloc on multilateral platforms, such as the UN, that can influence the course of global events. What was even more disappointing was Africa’s silence in the build-up to the conflict.
The conflict could have been averted had the involved actors, such as the EU, Russia, the US, the Ukraine government and Nato, acted in a manner that would have eased tensions. Africa needs to involve itself more in issues that have the potential for affecting global peace from a neutral position.
Further, Africa’s demand for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council needs to be given serious consideration. Africa and Latin America are the only continents without representation. Without a permanent seat in the most powerful organ of the global body, Africa’s agency in global affairs will be severely limited.
The conflict also presents an opportunity for African leaders to self-introspect about the vulnerable position of the continent in the global economic architecture. As demonstrated by the Covid-19 pandemic, global supply chains are vulnerable to shocks that can disrupt the supply of essential goods. These global shocks — the pandemic and the conflict — must serve as a wake-up call for Africa to urgently find ways of creating regional value chains to shield the continent and its people from external shocks that are beyond its control.
A good start would be enhancing Africa’s agricultural sector to cut dependence on imports. Africa has 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land and much of it remains underutilised. Urgent interventions are needed to secure the continent’s food supplies. Moreover, the irony of Africa producing almost 10% of the world’s crude oil yet importing all petroleum products has long been pointed out. Mechanisms are needed to ensure that Africa has the capacity to process its own oil so as to reduce dependence on fuel imports. It would be foolhardy to think Africa can cut itself off from the world. However, it can certainly reduce its dependence on global value chains whose fragility has been exposed by the health and geopolitical shocks of the past two years.
• Monyae is an associate professor of international relations and political science and director for the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg
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