For someone presumably eager to secure a second term as his party’s leader in December, President Cyril Ramaphosa has been surprisingly low key in promoting his cause.
Maybe one got too accustomed to the Jacob Zuma style of campaigning ahead of national conferences when he was still leader, but by now you’d expect the president to be using every available opportunity to be visible to party branches, which will soon formally nominate their candidates.
Memorial lectures, the unveiling of new tombstones for struggle icons, funerals of stalwarts, church services — all opportunities for an incumbent to signal that he is keen for another term and to demonstrate that he still commands support.
But not Ramaphosa. He seems to have convinced himself that the best way to get re-elected is to focus on his official duties as head of state and to engage in public organisational work only when absolutely necessary.
Or could it be that the Phala Phala saga is constraining his public appearances, lest he ends up at rallies where rowdy rank and file members cause a political spectacle by asking uncomfortable questions (and I don’t mean Wenzen’ uZuma)?
Perhaps he is just being a disciplined cadre, waiting patiently for September 7 — the date when the ANC is expected to officially open the leadership race by calling on branches to start nominations. Maybe we will see his hand then.
However Ramaphosa would do well to remember that those who seek to abide by the rules in ANC presidential campaigns normally do not emerge as victors.
In 2007, the then president Thabo Mbeki spent too much time fighting fires elsewhere on the continent, and on the important mission of persuading world powers that the Global South deserved permanent seats on the powerful UN Security Council, while his rival, Zuma, was winning hearts and minds at Cosatu conferences, ANC rallies and funerals.
Mbeki just would not break the party rule at the time that leaders do not go around publicly soliciting support for themselves.
We all know the end result.
The end result? Zuma, who had not been shy to criss-cross the country singing uMshini Wam and promising a new and radical economic path for SA, won by a landslide
Five years later, Zuma was to be challenged by his then deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe, for the post of ANC president. But despite being urged by his supporters to be out and about winning hearts and minds, Motlanthe simply refused to go on a road show.
He wasn’t about to commit the sin of those he once famously termed nkgetheng — ANC politicians who go around seeking to be voted into office.
The end result? Zuma, who had not been shy to criss-cross the country singing uMshini Wam and promising a new and radical economic path for SA, won by a landslide.
It is also possible that Ramaphosa hasn’t seen the need to start campaigning early because he will not be facing a rival of Zuma’s stature in December.
His rivals, if any of them can even secure nomination, have not been out there campaigning aggressively.
Those who have tried have either gained no traction or haven’t made up their minds whether they want to unseat Ramaphosa or settle for one of the other positions in the ANC top six.
All of this has resulted in the unusual situation that with only four months to go before the national conference, a retired politician who presumably has neither the desire or energy to return to office is the only one on the campaign trail.
Mbeki has been the most prominent face and voice of the ANC in recent months. He has been making a number of suggestions as to how the party can save itself from what now seems like imminent defeat and eventual demise.
Judging by videos that are being shared on social media by ANC sympathisers and members, many are hanging to his every word. Who can blame them for turning to a retired president for inspiration when their sitting president has still not given them his own assessment of last year’s poor showing at the local government polls and a possible way forward?
But not everything Mbeki says is a solution for today’s ANC. As was apparent from his speech at the memorial service for struggle icon Rita Alita Ndzanga, Mbeki still yearns for the ANC of the liberation struggle era, when sacrifice and selflessness were valued more highly than power, money and material possessions.
“We have been attracting into our ranks, wrong people,” he said. “You know… during the years of struggle… there was nobody who said ‘I want to be a president’. None. Nobody who said ndikhetheni [elect me] … But today baninzi oondikhetheni [there are too many of those who are too preoccupied with seeking positions].”
However, isn’t the source of the ANC’s problem — the ascension into leadership positions of people who are neither suitable nor qualified — the fact that for much of the first 20 years of freedom the party pretended individuals do not harbour ambitions but take up positions only when they have been “chosen by the people” to do so?
If the ANC has any chance at renewal and survival, the first step will be to stop railing against oondikhetheni.
It will in fact have to encourage people to throw their hats into the ring and then demand that, instead of going around singing uMshini Wam and other struggle songs, they publicly spell out what problems they seek to solve, and how, once they get into office.
This practice of forcing leaders to be shy about their ambitions is not a sign of humility; instead it contributes to producing the calibre of the current leadership that Mbeki and many of others are complaining about.
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