Two Sundays ago, #Renew22 — an online campaign lobbying for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s re-election as ANC president — published a newsletter calling on party members to “elect strong leaders” to the next national executive committee (NEC).
“#Renew22 is working towards the election of a progressive, ethical and capable leadership collective that will consolidate and advance meaningful transformation,” read the newsletter.
“#Renew22 believes in a second term for ... Ramaphosa and an NEC that will drive forward the renewal and rebuilding of the ANC and South Africa.”
I do not know who is behind #Renew22, but their website has the look and feel of the #CR17 campaign that helped get Ramaphosa elected ANC president at Nasrec in December 2017.
In the absence of their candidate travelling the length and breadth of the country telling party branches why he should be re-elected, they have become the best option available for understanding why he thinks he deserves a second term.
In another newsletter they list the raising of R1.14-trillion “in new investment commitments” through the four investment conferences the president hosted, the establishment of the Infrastructure Fund, the finalisation of “master plans” for eight industries and the R2.5bn the state has set aside for black industrialists as among Ramaphosa’s achievements since coming into office.
He should be retained as president, they argue, so he can pursue faster economic growth, build the country’s manufacturing, reduce the number of monopolies in different sectors and forge a pact between government, business and labour that would result in “a new economic compact” and a higher national minimum wage.
Whatever one thinks of the president’s ability to deliver on any of the promises, what seems to be clear is that this is the closest we will get to a Ramaphosa re-election manifesto.
Renew22 is working towards the election of a progressive, ethical and capable leadership collective that will consolidate and advance meaningful transformation
#Renew22 calls on ANC branches “to choose your leaders wisely” when nominating those they want to serve with Ramaphosa in the next NEC. That horse, it seems, has long bolted.
Even if Ramaphosa does emerge a winner in the December presidential race, it looks highly unlikely that he’ll get the NEC he wants, not to mention the so-called top-six.
The president and his inner circle appear to have adopted an approach that — to guarantee re-election — he will not offend any of the numerous interest groups within the party by endorsing any of the candidates for the other five top posts.
Instead they have left it to the provinces to negotiate among themselves as to who they want as part of his collective.
There are several dangers associated with this approach, not least of which is the possibility of horse-trading resulting in him being squeezed out of the leadership equation.
Already that is what his opponents in KwaZulu-Natal are trying to do by supporting Gauteng’s bid to have Paul Mashatile as the next ANC deputy president, Limpopo’s Stan Mathabatha as national chairman and Eastern Cape’s Phumulo Masualle as secretary-general.
With Gauteng, Limpopo and a bit of Eastern Cape on their side, KZN ANC is calculating, that Zweli Mkhize can beat Ramaphosa for the top job. After all, the four provinces will send the biggest delegations to the elective conference.
But even if the other provinces wince at the idea of having the former health minister — who was forced to resign amidst the Digital Vibes corruption scandal — as the face of the ANC going into the 2024 general election, KwaZulu-Natal may agree to support Mashatile for the presidency in return for Mkhize as his deputy.
However, even if Ramaphosa is not left out and the provinces who have nominated him remain resolute that he gets his second term, it will not be on his terms.
The power brokers who would have delivered the conference for him will be calling the shots. He’ll be on his second and last term and we all know that ANC presidents tend to become lame ducks when everyone knows they will not be around much longer.
Among the arguments for Ramaphosa’s re-election is that he didn’t have enough time and the right environment to become the president he set out to be. He inherited, it is argued, an NEC that was packed with his foes. When he eventually gained control, it is further argued, the pandemic hit — derailing his economic plans and other measures that were to put the country back on track after years of state capture.
But judging by the lists that are doing rounds ahead of conference, he is not going to get his own NEC in this round either.
Which begs the question for us citizens: What can the president realistically deliver in his second term that he couldn’t in his first? What would have changed in his favour?
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