SA, gushing in its relations with Saudis, is yet to learn there is no honour among autocrats

Running for the US presidency three years ago, then candidate Joe Biden vowed to turn Saudi Arabia, one of America's most trusted allies, into a pariah. A repressive regime that tends to wear its religious zealotry like a badge of honour, has been, among many other human rights abuses, waging a savage war in Yemen, leaving thousands dead and the country in total collapse.

But what triggered Biden’s fury was the gruesome assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi-born Washington Post columnist, who was lured to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, where he was killed, his body hacked into pieces and — it is believed — the parts packed into a suitcase and taken to Saudi Arabia. The CIA said the order to kill Khashoggi had come from crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

“We’re going to make them pay,” Biden said in his campaign. “We’ll make them the pariah that they are.” Biden’s caustic criticism was also aimed at then president Donald Trump who he was set to challenge for the White House. Trump had referred to the crown prince as a friend and pooh-poohed his complicity in Khashoggi’s murder.

Biden had promised to make human rights central to his foreign policy. But once in office, he did a volte face. He surprised many when he decided to visit Saudi Arabia in July — which in itself was a PR coup for the kingdom — but promised not to meet MBS. He did not only meet him but was seen greeting MBS with an enthusiastic fist bump on arrival, provoking outrage among human rights advocates. The Washington Post called the fist bump “shameful”. “It projected a level of intimacy and comfort that delivers to MBS the unwarranted redemption he has been desperately seeking,” the paper said.

This week Opec Plus, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to reduce oil production by 2-million barrels a day, which will lead to a spike in energy prices. This is not only a slap in the face for Biden who, during his visit, had pleaded for an increase in oil production, it is also a humiliation in many ways. The increase in oil prices will hand Vladimir Putin a crucial financial lifeline at a time when the US and other Western countries have slapped economic sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Putin's strategy is to use his ample energy reserves as a weapon against his Western adversaries, most of whom depend largely on Russian imports.

But the oil squeeze is likely to hurt Biden even more and immediately at home. Americans go to the polls in midterm elections in less than a month, and Republicans have been using rocketing fuel prices as an effective campaigning issue against the president and his Democratic Party.

The prices have fallen in recent months, thus taking the edge off. The Democrats have also received encouragement after the Supreme Court judgment banning abortion, which has galvanised its supporters, making them confident of retaining at least the Senate. But Opec's decision could take the wind out of their sails. Is this an innocent business decision by the Saudis or is it deliberately intended to hurt Biden and help his foes? Republicans will welcome the bonanza.

Should they retake Congress next month, Biden's agenda will not only be dead in the water, it could also have serious implications for the presidential elections in two years. Most Republicans still deny Biden won the presidency, and are unlikely to ratify his victory or that of any other Democrat should they be in the majority in the next presidential election. The peaceful transfer of power, or democracy itself, could be in jeopardy.

Saudi Arabia is an enigma in US foreign policy. It depends on American patronage, especially in security and defence — it has a sizeable number of US troops stationed in the country and it's manned by highly sophisticated missile defence systems — and yet its actions are sometimes antithetical to US interests. It's not only a mega-oil producer, it is also a boon to US arms manufacturers.

Saudi Arabia is an enigma in US foreign policy. It depends on American patronage, especially in security and defence

This week Democratic senator Dick Durbin said the Saudi royal family had never been a trustworthy US ally. “It's time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without their alliance,” he said. The 9/11 bombers were Saudis,  as was Osama bin Laden. Yet the US sent troops, not to Saudi Arabia, but to Iraq, with the Saudis cheering because they wanted to see Saddam Hussein's demise. But that has backfired spectacularly — with not only the Americans getting bogged down in the war but the new Iraqi regime becoming friends with Iran, a sworn enemy of both the US and Saudi Arabia.

Hopes of political reform when the crown prince took over five years ago have been dashed. Apart from Khashoggi's murder, MBS has had the Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri taken hostage to Riyadh where he was forced to resign; he has ordered the detention in five-star hotels of Saudi elites, among them his blood relatives; the war in Yemen — a proxy for the conflict between the kingdom and Iran — has left almost 400,000 dead and 17m in need of food assistance.

He has made one concession though: women are now allowed to drive.

In keeping with our affection for autocrats, SA is almost gushing in its relations with Saudi Arabia. On a state visit a few years ago, President Cyril Ramaphosa was delighted to be awarded the Order of King Abdulaziz, named after the founder of the Saudi state. But we're not immune from its avarice. We’ll pay even more for fuel at a time when we can least afford it.