The ANC is broken. It has become a brand that survives on its struggle record, used now to mobilise supporters of that past to retain state control and for members to secure opportunities therein.
As was obvious at its national conference, policies are increasingly unimportant, beyond retaining those related to enrichment, such as preferential procurement, BEE and cadre deployment.
Even the ANC’s alliance with the SACP and Cosatu is based on the struggle, these ruling party allies securing state patronage through appointments to the government and the protection of trade unionists’ jobs in the state and state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
This alliance is not based on common policy or ideology, but on Cosatu and the SACP wanting access to state patronage through their support for the ANC, whichever faction is in control.
The ruling party is now clearly divided into two entrenched camps. The divide is not based on differing policies or ideologies, but on Cyril Ramaphosa’s group retaining power and the radical economic transformation brigade wanting to grab back power.
Leadership in the ANC is mostly recycled, dominated by struggle families and their offspring. There is little space for newer, unknown members who are not politically connected.
Individuals such as Lindiwe Sisulu have been in the cabinet since 1994. Policies, ideas and ideologies are also recycled, even though they persistently fail.
The broken ANC is now mostly rural based, its voters largely those who depend on social grants, employment or contracts. Its supporters are increasingly older.
Politically aware young professionals appear to have shunned the party. Black intellectuals have largely left the ANC.
The mostly private sector black middle class is increasingly moving on and the party is beginning to lose those in the black working class who are not state employees.
The ANC has essentially become a cult that's united by its struggle past, songs, rituals and Cold War neo-Marxist economic view
The ANC’s alliance with Cosatu provides the labour federation’s members with job security, keeping them in the party.
Cosatu is now predominantly a public sector union federation. However, private sector working classes, if unionised, are likely to belong to non-Cosatu unions and are increasingly turning their backs on the ANC.
The ANC’s development model is based on a Cold War-era neo-Marxist view that the state should dominate the economy.
According to this model, the government should create jobs, deliver public services and build infrastructure. The ANC’s version is suspicious of big business and its development model is based on enrichment policies.
It is increasingly against business, civil society, professionals and intellectuals. It seems that it is a mark of honour for ANC leaders to attack “big business”; attach labels to black intellectuals who appear critical of its leaders, decisions and policies; and see civil society organisations as fronts of Western powers.
For many ANC members it does not matter whether leaders are corrupt, incompetent or violent, as long as they adhere to the rules of the cult.
On the whole, the party does not represent South African or even black society any more. Out of a population of nearly 60-million, 10-million voted for the ANC in 2018.
The party has essentially become a cult that’s united by its struggle past, songs and rituals, and Cold War neo-Marxist economic view. It appears to look only after itself, its members and leaders, using the state to protect loyal cadres.
The cult is now far removed from ordinary black South Africans. The ANC elite are insulated from power outages, state failures, violent crime and unemployment.
The almost impossible renewal challenge for President Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC leader is how to end the party’s cultish ways before the 2024 elections. If he fails to do so, its dominance will end.
• Gumede is associate professor at the Wits School of Governance, and author of 'Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times' (Tafelberg).
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