Warnings that South Africa is sitting on a ticking time-bomb, and that unrest, even revolution, will result from inequality and poverty have long been a part of the political discourse. The social ills that plague the country, the legacy of colonialism and apartheid, have been, and remain, a source of discontent.
The latest warning came this week from the CEO of state insurance agency Sasria, Mpumi Tyikwe, who cautioned that South Africa risked a repeat of the July 2021 unrest, whose anniversary falls this week, due to high youth unemployment and load-shedding.
While unemployment, including among young people, poses a threat to national stability, it is just one of many pressure points and fault lines the country has to deal with.
Contestation within the ruling ANC has also emerged as a risk. This was evident two years ago when supporters of former president Jacob Zuma violently opposed his incarceration for contempt of the Constitutional Court. This unleashed an orgy of violence and looting in KwaZulu-Natal and later Gauteng, resulting in the deaths of 354 people and up to R50bn in damage to property. The province is yet to recover.
It is concerning that the government has made little progress in coming to grips with the causes of the unrest and bringing to book the organisers of the mayhem, which President Cyril Ramaphosa described as an attempted insurrection. We have not been assured that the state has the plans or the capacity to prevent a repeat of the 2021 events, even after the State Security Agency was brought into the Presidency.
It’s common cause that factional divisions within the ANC have spilt over into the state security sphere, hindering the relevant agencies in doing their work as the constitution demands.
It is alarming, too, that the state has moved at a snail’s pace to implement panel reports on reforming the security services in the wake of the 2021 unrest and the Marikana massacre before that.
Other schisms which threaten peace and social cohesion are inequality and poverty, which feed ongoing discontent.
On the race front we have also not covered ourselves in glory in addressing issues which are a carry-over from our history.
As a country, we are faced with the challenges of lawlessness and criminality, which, apart from causing social instability, pose a threat to economic development and growth. The failure by the state to make it a certainty that those who break the law will be brought to book has spawned a culture of impunity and more egregious criminal activity. Coming to mind are the so-called construction mafias, which are hobbling business activities in many parts of the country.
While each of the threats and challenges we face is unlikely, on its own, to tip the country over the abyss overnight, they do pose a danger to our collective welfare now, and our national prospects tomorrow.
The July unrest was a taste of the consequences that might follow if our leaders continue to fiddle in the face of our national stresses and strains. In this moment, what is needed is for our leaders to show a renewed focus, in the interests of the country and its people, to address national challenges instead of hoping they will go away by themselves. But it also calls for us as citizens to ponder our role and what we can do to make our country a better place for ourselves, our children and future generations.
We have pulled ourselves from the brink in the past. But that is no reason to tempt fate by doing nothing to address the threats facing us as a nation.
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