Among the many benefits of being an incumbent ahead of an election is that one can redirect state spending and government programmes to suit a re-election agenda.
Suddenly there are sod-turning ceremonies all over the land to mark the start of the construction of new schools, clinics, regional roads and even the filling of long-ignored potholes.
New bursary schemes are announced for long-suffering students whose families can’t afford university tuition and plans are unveiled for multibillion-rand infrastructure projects that promise to change people’s lives.
In countries such as our neighbour Zimbabwe, as we saw ahead of its recent election, wealthy and well-connected politicians may even hire super-celebrities such as US boxing sensation Floyd Mayweather to shore up support. Mega-rich showmen like Mayweather don’t come cheap.
His moniker alone — Money — makes that obvious. So we can only imagine how many sofas full of US dollars his Zanu-PF hosts would have needed to convince him to make a quick stop in Harare. Even South African celebrities, who angered many of their local fans by flying to Zimbabwe to spend some quality time with President Emmerson Mnangagwa just days before the polls, must have been rewarded handsomely for their troubles.
Whether such gimmicks did help Mnangagwa and Zanu-PF win over new voters is still subject to debate. Though he was declared the winner of the presidential race, the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) says the process was rigged. They were supported in this claim by many independent observers, including those who represented other southern African countries.
The CCC is expected to challenge the outcome in the courts but, given the proximity of the judiciary to the country’s ruling elite, it is unlikely Mnangagwa’s victory will be overturned.
We are fortunate in South Africa that, despite our many failings and weaknesses, we still have a credible electoral system and a judiciary that we can rely on were disputes to arise about the process or the outcomes of elections. However, that does not mean that those who hold public office are never tempted to use their incumbency to tilt public opinion in their favour ahead of elections.
Civil servants in all spheres of government tell stories of immense pressure they often find themselves under to launch new projects in particular constituencies whenever elections are approaching
For most of the past 29 years, the ANC has benefited greatly from being the party in power in most municipalities and provinces and in the national government. With every election season, ministers, premiers and mayors would be on the ground launching programmes that often blurred the line between party and state.
Civil servants in all spheres of government tell stories of immense pressure they often find themselves under to launch new projects in particular constituencies whenever elections are approaching.
Next year’s polls are being billed as the most competitive yet in the nonracial era, with the ANC said to be in danger of not securing enough votes to continue governing on its own at national level as well as in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. With that being the case, we should expect the temptation to use and abuse its incumbency to be high.
But the situation is likely to be complicated by the dire financial situation the ANC-led government finds itself in. While previously an election year often meant increased government spending and handsome raises for public servants, this year the National Treasury is advocating for stringent measures that would result in severe cuts in spending.
As we report elsewhere in this edition, the Treasury has warned that it is facing “unprecedented challenges” this financial year and the situation is unlikely to improve any time soon. It has therefore proposed that hiring at all levels of government be frozen and only vacant posts considered “critical” be filled after consultation with the Treasury.
What are the implications of this, for instance, for Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi’s Nasi iSpani programme, which promises to create thousands of jobs for the youth?
Opposition parties such as the EFF and the DA have long accused the Gauteng government of using such programmes to win votes next year. They would most likely pressure Lesufi to suspend the programme in line with the Treasury’s proposal.
The Treasury largely blames the dire state of the public purse on the country’s poor economic performance, which is due mainly to the devastating effects of load-shedding, the logistical constraints resulting from Transnet’s freight rail crisis as well as higher-than-expected wage increases in the public sector. All direct consequences of the ANC government’s own actions and decisions.
As things stand the ANC looks set to enter its most important election race since 1994 with its hands and legs tied — in the form of not being able to take advantage of its incumbency. It has no-one to blame — not even apartheid — but itself.
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