Despots make African coups inevitable

As hunger and poverty deepen in Africa — caused by Covid-induced economic crises, inflation due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and uncaring authoritarian governments — the continent is likely to see more coups supported by ordinary people, especially the young.

Africa is entering a particularly violent and chaotic period — reminiscent of the Cold War — which is likely to set back development for generations, break up countries and unleash mass migrations,   with many attempting to move to Western countries.

Since the end of colonialism, food shortages, food  inflation and insecurity have often fuelled mass uprisings against  corrupt, autocratic governments. Coups by military leaders  have been common, and we are now seeing the rise of jihadist movements exploiting mass anger. 

Gabon’s president Ali Bongo, in power since 2009,  is the latest authoritarian leader to  be toppled. The head of the Gabonese Presidency’s Republican Guard, Brice Oligui Nguema,  has pronounced himself the transition leader.

 It is the 10th attempted or successful coup in Central and West Africa since 2020. Weeks ago, military leaders ousted Niger’s president Mohamed Bazoum, and  have been holding him and his family in the basement of his presidential palace in the capital Niamey.

 Bongo took  the reins of power from his father, Omar Bongo, who was president of Gabon for 42 years, from 1967 to 2009, in what is effectively a presidential monarchy — a phenomenon in which children of long-standing African  leaders  succeed their fathers, albeit through carefully managed elections.

Gabon under Ali Bongo  staged sham elections —   as has been done elsewhere in Africa,  most recently in Zimbabwe, where the ruling the party  has maintained power through a combination of patronage and repression of opponents.

Africa’s continental and regional governance structures are impotent when faced with coups, election rigging and abuse of power by authoritarian leaders and parties

Autocratic, corrupt and incompetent leaders who hold on to power at all costs can often only be ousted by coups, or Arab Spring-like mass uprisings or if opposition parties  form multiparty coalitions with the support of mass civil movements.

The younger Bongo ruled through “democratic institutions”, deploying allies to  run the public service and state-owned entities. He controlled the judiciary and violently repressed critical media, civil society and the opposition. There was no equality for women and minority groups were marginalised. In July  Gabonese economists Mays Mouissi and Harold Leckat, in a scathing report on government maladministration  titled “105 promises, 13 achievements”, said in a country with less than 2.5-million citizens and abundant mineral, gas and oil reserves, the unemployment rate ballooned to 32%, with a third of the population living in poverty  with no access to basic public services.

The central African country is the fourth-largest oil producer in Sub-Saharan Africa. According to Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index, the country is among the most corrupt in the world. In the 2016 presidential election, Bongo’s Gabonese Democratic Party was declared the winner with 49.8% of the vote against Jean Ping of the opposition Union of Forces for Change. The opposition and independent observers called for a recount, citing blatant vote-rigging. Security forces stormed Ping’s offices and nation-wide violence erupted —  with about 100 people dying and hundreds arrested.

A recount was held,  but the AU observer mission was sidelined by a constitutional court under the control of the president. Bongo was given 50.7% of the vote in the recount.

Bongo suffered a stroke in 2018 and his health has since deteriorated,  the leader not being seen in public for long periods.

The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted food supplies to the country, causing mass hunger as food inflation spirals. Last year, Nadine Mballa, co-ordinator of Gabon’s Farmers Union, warned that hunger  would increase unless the government  took urgent steps to secure food sovereignty, as the war had deprived Gabon of more than 55% of the wheat  it imported from Russia and Ukraine.

Many, especially the youth, have embraced the recent coups in Africa, hoping  these will bring much-needed change for the better. Gabon, Niger and the African countries under new military leaders face the  prospect of plunging into Libya- and Sudan-like chaos —  worsening already dire economic crises, mass hunger and violent chaos in these countries.

Africa’s continental and regional governance structures  are impotent  when faced with coups, election rigging and abuse of power by authoritarian leaders and parties. Most members of regional organisations — such as the Southern African Development Community and the Economic Community of West African States — and the   AU are ruled by military leaders or  autocrats lacking credibility,  which has emboldened prospective military coup leaders to  seize power, knowing they are unlikely to be censured.

African regional and continental institutions must be democratised to exclude  despots and jihadist leaders from membership  and act more decisively against wayward African leaders — otherwise Africa’s violent chaos and lack of development will continue for generations, while the rest of the world prospers.

*Gumede is associate professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand and author of 'Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times' (Tafelberg)