South Africa has been down this path many times before. It won the 2010 World Cup partly because Fifa wanted to honour Nelson Mandela and partly because it wanted to defuse criticism that an African country had never been given a chance to host the tournament.
Neither reason had anything to do with South Africa’s prowess on the soccer field or even administratively. South Africa has been lucky that way, but it’s luck that runs out at some point.
The country has a long history of punching above its economic and political weight in international affairs, which has been both a blessing and a curse: it has been accepted into global forums despite its presence not being justified by the size of its economy; but then it has not bothered to work hard enough to build the economic muscle that would justify its presence in these forums.
Hence, what South Africa is projecting now is not the strength and the potential of its economic might but the recognition the world bestowed on it in years gone by. This kind of projection, celebrated in the hosting of the Brics summit, is dangerous: because it is not underpinned by any economic and political substance, and because the world has no respect for has-beens.
The world respects China — and perhaps also fears it — because of its economic might, on the back of which it has added military, technological and diplomatic strength. The world has always respected economic strength. A South Africa whose economic and financial importance globally is on the wane will discover sooner rather than later that few nations take it seriously.
South Africa must wake up to the reality of the curse.
Two things stood out at the Brics summit. First, China’s gift to South Africa of help in dealing with the energy crisis. The optics of the aid were bad, illustrating how we have failed to properly manage our affairs.
Second, India announced in the middle of the summit that it had landed a spacecraft on the moon — the fourth country ever to do so, a feat it achieved at a fraction of what it costs the US or Russia. India’s achievement shows the scale of its ambition and long-term planning. South Africa had no significant technological or economic achievement to display.
South Africa was first invited to join Brics partly as a nod to its perceived economic importance and partly because the original four members needed an African voice at their table.
Brics agreed last month to welcome six new members — Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This will dilute South Africa’s presence even further — only Ethiopia, Egypt and Iran having smaller economies (not by much, in the case of the two latter nations).
If South Africa wants its voice to matter, not only with the enlarged Brics group but in other global platforms, it must up its economic game
If South Africa wants its voice to matter, not only with the enlarged Brics group but in other global platforms, it must up its economic game. The country needs a serious economic growth ambition which it must back with all its political strength.
Otherwise, South Africa will continue to trade on its past glory, a glory that politicians wrongly imagine grants the country a permanent voice in global affairs.
Let’s recap how South Africa arrived at international prominence. It starts with the discovery of gold, which made the country crucial to Britain’s economic and financial interests. Britain pulled South Africa close and for many years manoeuvred to keep its gold flowing via the London market, which helped to cement the pound as a currency for settling trade and investment transactions.
South Africa and Britain became mutually dependent; South Africa needed London as the source, or conduit, of investment funds into the development of the mining industry, and the UK also provided a market for agricultural exports.
All this resulted in the creation of strong financial markets — the JSE as well as the government bond and foreign exchange markets. The rand, for example, has historically traded way above what the country’s economic size would justify.
After 1994, South Africa was welcomed back into the global economic community. Doors opened as the country was seen as a beacon of hope in a continent where economic progress was largely disappointing.
That’s why Pretoria was invited to join the G20, which was established in 1999 in the aftermath of the 1998 financial crisis as a forum for discussion among finance ministers and central bank governors.
Membership gave South Africa a voice in a forum whose members collectively account for about 85% of the world’s GDP and more than 75% of international trade. G20 nations represent about two-thirds of the world population.
There is a case to be made that South Africa has used its position at the G20 table to weigh in on issues of global importance, such as reform of the world’s financial architecture. This is laudable.
However, South Africa’s political leaders forgot the most important issue. And that was the fact that a shrinking economy meant the country’s clout would shrink along with it. One factor in its economic woes is the way it has failed to fully take advantage of market booms in commodities, a mainstay of its exports.
Unless South Africa regains economic strength, it will soon become a has-been, increasingly ignored by the players that count.
* Mathebula is a professor at the University of Limpopo’s Turfloop Graduate School of Leadership and a founder of Ignite Africa Advisory Services Group.
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