For African postcolonial independence and liberation movements there is a tipping point — almost like an algorithm, for every term they remain in power, state, infrastructure and economic collapse worsens, with the ever-downward spiral resulting in worsening poverty, state failure and often violent chaos.
Zanu-PF is far beyond that tipping point. Another term for the party will bring unimaginable misery to the country. The power and water grids are likely to collapse, already dire infrastructure will become dysfunctional, the country’s foreign debt will balloon further and inflation will continue to spiral.
In mid-November 2008, inflation in Zimbabwe was estimated at 79,600,000,000% a month, a record in recorded human history. This caused the Zimbabwean dollar's value to plunge to $2,621,984,228 for US$1. The country had to abandon its currency for that of the US, which its leaders, such as Robert Mugabe, derided as imperialist for holding the government accountable for human rights abuses.
With another five years of Zanu-PF, these inflation levels may return and the currency is again likely to crash, forcing it to return to the US dollar. Food shortages will reach even more critical levels. In 2019, nearly 60% of Zimbabwe's population was food insecure, said the UN. Hyperinflation, with droughts and the destruction of agriculture due to its conversion from commercial to informal, is likely to cause starvation in a country once seen as the breadbasket of Africa.
Already-dire public services are likely to decline further and the informalisation of the economy will continue, meaning services will be at their most basic or, when rendered, obtained through bribery.
The education, health and police sectors will further collapse. Public servants' salaries will not be paid or, if they are, will be worthless because of hyperinflation, leading them to extract patronage from customers for the little that is available.
We are likely to see a new wave of mass migration of Zimbabweans to South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Western countries, causing a shortage of critical skills without which the economy cannot recover.
The end game in Zimbabwe, with an arrogant Zanu-PF supported by South Africa and neighbouring regional governments, is likely to be a Sudan- or Libya-like collapse
Despite their appalling governance, these African liberation movements remain in power because many vote for them based on their roles in fighting colonialism, apartheid or white-minority rule. Surprisingly, subsequent generations vote for them because their affinity for them is transferred by families, communities and traditional structures.
However, these movements not only capture the state, but the private sector, churches, traditional authorities and sports associations. As the economy informalises, the only jobs or businesses remain in the state, meaning to get employment in government or a tender necessitates loyalty to the ruling party.
These parties manipulate information by controlling state media, the internet and social media platforms, crushing independent outlets to present only pro-government news, while criminalising their critics. The state pressurises companies not to advertise in independent media. In Zimbabwe's case, the government bombed the now-defunct Daily News and harassed those buying independent media outlets.
Such states circumscribe civil society by repressing human rights activists or cutting foreign funding. They often, like Zimbabwe, introduce laws to criminalise dissent, opposition parties, civil society and the media.
Since independence from colonialism, food shortages and related price increases and insecurity, especially if combined with official corruption, incompetence and authoritarianism, have often fuelled mass uprisings against governments or, if they are impregnable, coups by military leaders or a rise in jihadist movements exploiting mass anger.
In African countries with similarly uncaring but impregnable governments, corruption, economic distress and starvation, there are often coups. This is why Africa is seeing a phenomenal post-Covid-19 explosion of such takeovers.
In Zimbabwe, Zanu-PF is essentially a military party and government, with its armed wing in key positions in government and state-owned entities.
It is likely the coming hyperinflation, informalisation of the once-thriving industrial economy, collapse of the currency, mass starvation and state collapse will not lead to a coup, but mass uprisings against the government. Nevertheless, the end game in Zimbabwe, with an arrogant Zanu-PF supported by South Africa and neighbouring regional governments, is likely to be a Sudan- or Libya-like collapse.
There should be a re-run of the Zimbabwe election; alternatively, a government of national unity with equal representation between Zanu-PF and the main opposition parties. One of these is the only solution to the coming Armageddon in Zimbabwe, which will break the country and cause a massive influx of Zimbabweans to South Africa, Namibia and Botswana. For this country, this will put massive pressure on already hard-pressed public resources, depressing the economy and undermining stability.
Gumede is associate professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and author of ‘South Africa in BRICS’ (Tafelberg)
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