Do you see any hope in the opposition getting 44% of the vote in spite of the obstacles?
I do. It shows that in spite of attempts to systematically dismantle the opposition by the [Emmerson] Mnangagwa regime, they were still able to garner considerable support. The challenge now is what the regime will do in the next year.
How do you see that playing out?
I think we're already seeing it playing out. Three members of the opposition have been arrested. Zanu-PF are about nine seats short of a two-thirds majority. They're probably going to try to get that majority through repressive measures, push for re-elections and cause problems ahead of those elections. Their legitimacy is so seriously under question now that they're prepared to do anything to go forward.
Do you see any hope in Sadc's release of a report critical of the elections?
I think it's very significant that the report was done. It's not since 2008, when the [Thabo] Mbeki intervention on behalf of Sadc led to the government of national unity, that Sadc took a critical position. But the liberation movements' solidarity issues are likely to undermine any further movement on this report.
You don't see much coming from it?
I have my doubts, particularly because South Africa is not taking a leading position on this. With regard to Zimbabwe, South Africa has been the key player in taking leading positions around mediation. But we've seen the response of the ANC, [secretary-general Fikile] Mbalula's repetition of the Zanu-PF narrative, Ramaphosa's hesitation ...
How do you explain this?
The ANC is going through its own existential crisis ahead of the South African elections.
Its support goes back long before it had any existential issues, surely?
Yes, largely because of the liberation movements' solidarity issues, which are very strong in the region. The liberation legacy narrative is a central part of the legitimacy narrative of all these ruling parties, so they're unlikely to move away from that, even in the face of this kind of report.
Do you see the ANC's compliance with Zanu-PF's election tactics as an indication of what might happen here?
No. There are similarities, but also differences. South Africa has an election process which still has a lot of legitimacy and the military plays a lesser role here than in Zimbabwe in terms of intervention.
Liberation movement solidarity or not, what do you make of its support for the regime given the socioeconomic consequences for South Africa?
It contradicts the xenophobic narrative in South African politics, which is a response to that crisis, and it's a contradiction the ANC is unable to resolve.
Why did the GNU not work?
Because the reforms set out in the GNU agreement were not implemented. Any kind of GNU or dialogue now has to include reforms which can be implemented and where there are outsiders helping to carry out that process, and where you have regional, national and international consensus on how to move forward, as with the Lancaster House agreement.
How likely is that?
International criticism of the elections provides a real basis, but it would need a lead government in the region to push for it. Unless South Africa makes a move, there's little hope.
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