Recent man-made disasters, such as the deadly Johannesburg fire, the cholera outbreak, infrastructure collapses and bankruptcies at state-owned enterprises (SOEs), are expected after years of state capture, mismanagement and neglect. These outcomes are often only seen after a critical tipping-point moment, one that is being seen now. As a result, we are likely to see more such disasters.
South Africa is experiencing system failure, in which the entire public, social and institutional infrastructure system is under pressure of collapse. If we experience natural disasters such as floods, the impact will be disproportionally damaging in terms of lives lost, destruction and the cost of repairs. Once system breakdowns take place, they cannot be overcome in the short term; they may take years to rectify.
Immediate solutions following such events are often not just temporary, but very costly and only bandage fixes. Many South Africans do not understand how the cumulative result of state capture, mismanagement and incompetence is often not immediately seen, but experienced after a prolonged period. This is the reason it has been almost impossible to turn around postcolonial African countries, where citizens have allowed governments to plunge their states into critical levels of state capture, mismanagement and neglect, often leading to system breakdowns across economies, and state and non-state institutions.
Informalisation of the economy in the public and private sectors renders public services — hospitals, schools and housing delivery — dysfunctional
When these tipping points are reached, African countries often become failed or partially failed states which appear unable to claw their way out of their deep-seated crises, deindustrialisation and informalisation of their economies. System breakdowns are deindustrialising South Africa, meaning the country is losing the ability to produce what it did, while informalisation of the economy in the public and private sectors renders public services — hospitals, schools and housing delivery — dysfunctional.
Illegal mining is increasingly informalising that sector, with gold, platinum and diamonds being mined, sold and exported by informal players.
The recent inner-city fire in Johannesburg, which claimed more than 75 lives, was the result of a lack of system enforcement, whether of bylaws, regulations, compliance or property rights, which have partially broken down in South Africa. This has allowed criminals to hijack buildings, companies and government projects.
The corruption, mismanagement and neglect of maintenance at Eskom over the years have also reached tipping-point levels, leading to system failure which the government will, sadly, be unable to repair overnight, no matter what politicians say. The reality is, fixing the power grid will be costly and take a long time, and Eskom may have to be abandoned as a utility as a result.
The water system is also facing a tipping point of collapse, and related outages are likely to become the next “load-shedding”.
The public passenger and logistics transport system has already experienced partial system collapse because of state capture, mismanagement and neglect. The public transport system has been informalised, with deadly minibus taxis now the main mode of transport for the poor. The informal taxi industry has captured large parts of the system, undermining the right to freedom of operation of non-minibus taxi competitors. This is because it violently opposes them, undermining the freedom of citizens.
We are also likely to see many SOEs collapse, like SAA did, due to corruption, mismanagement and neglect that have now reached critical levels. This week Transnet announced it is in deep crisis, with R130bn in debt that costs R1bn a month to service.
The sad reality is that South Africa has entered a period of system collapse in which we will see and feel the results of years of state capture, mismanagement and neglect. It will be painful because the solutions — if there is a political will, of which there is currently very little — will often not be implemented swiftly.
* Gumede is associate professor at the School of Governance, Wits University, and author of ‘Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times’ (Tafelberg)
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