In his book, Who Will Rule in 2019?, journalist Jan-Jan Joubert writes about a tip-off he received during the ANC’s 2017 national conference: the preferred strategy of the winning candidate, Cyril Ramaphosa, to fix South Africa was to form a government of national unity.
Published in the run-up to the 2019 general elections with a focus on scenarios that could change the country’s political landscape, the book was perhaps one election or two premature in seeing 2019 as the start of the coalition era at national and provincial level.
But who could blame the author? The ANC’s nose had just been bloodied in the 2016 local government elections, in which it lost traditional strongholds such as the Nelson Mandela Bay, Johannesburg and Tshwane metros.
Although Ramaphosa’s victory at Nasrec did regain for the ANC some of the public confidence it had lost during the second part of Jacob Zuma’s decade-long presidency, it was still not clear if this would be enough to return the party to power with a simple majority.
According to Joubert, Ramaphosa’s inclination as he took over the running of the ANC was to offer opposition parties positions even if the ANC won more than the 50% of the votes it needed to form a government on its own.
One unnamed source he quotes says such a government of national unity would be “the ultimate expression of the social cohesion Ramaphosa wants to create” and would give “practical effect to nonracialism”.
As we know, such a strategy never materialised. Although its share of the vote declined remarkably in 2019 from previous national polls, the decline wasn’t drastic enough to compel the ANC to look for coalition partners.
With next year’s elections fast approaching amid the belief they will mark an inflection point ending one-party dominance, there is once again debate and discussion over what the incoming government could or should look like
Ramaphosa, perhaps too preoccupied with keeping his party’s factions inside the tent to have the leeway to show some magnanimity towards the opposition, gave no hint that he would have liked to invite the DA, IFP or any other major political party into his new cabinet.
But this has not stopped speculation about a possible multiparty government in future.
With next year’s elections fast approaching amid the belief they will mark an inflection point ending one-party dominance, there is once again debate and discussion over what the incoming government could or should look like.
Although oppostition parties who recently signed onto the Multiparty Charter say their main ambition is to reduce the ANC’s support to less than 50%, they seem to realise that, on their own, they would still not be able to form the next government.
They may have a shot at doing so if they were to be joined by the EFF, the country’s third largest party. But the DA, a leading member of the opposition coalition plan, says it will not work with the EFF and the Red Berets seem to feel the same about John Steenhuisen’s party.
For the ANC, the most obvious path back to power if it falls short of a simple majority in parliament, would be to woo the EFF.
But despite the EFF’s supposed ANC roots and the personal friendships its leaders seem to enjoy with ANC politicians, the relationship is fraught with many problems. The two parties seem headed for a nasty divorce in Ekurhuleni, where they run a coalition government, and do not really get along in Johannesburg.
Which brings us to the ANC and the DA. If Joubert’s sources are to be believed, a rapprochement between the two was an option that Ramaphosa and his inner circle would have preferred in 2019 already, were it not for his party’s internal dynamics and the fact that they won the elections fairly comfortably.
As the country’s two biggest parties, neither of which is likely to lose its place in the rankings, they could arguably form the most stable coalition government. The two parties have vast experience in governance and are broadly centrist when it comes to economic policies.
One can see why sections of the private sector, anxious to put an end to the current governance crisis but mindful of the fact that a stable coalition government may have to include the largest party, prefer this option.
But it simply would not work. An ANC-DA coalition government is a bad idea. Such a government would be characterised by policy paralysis as the two parties hold diametrically opposed views on many of the key issues.
Take the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a topical example. What would be the stance of such a coalition government when the ANC is ideologically and politically committed to backing the Palestinian cause while the DA almost always takes the side of Israel?
One would not even venture to talk about contentious local issues such as land reform, BEE policies and affirmative action.
Whatever the outcome of next year’s elections, we will be better off with the ANC and the DA remaining on opposite sides. If no party is able to form a new government on its own, whatever coalition government is formed will have to exclude one of the two parties from power.
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