One can be certain that by the end of the week, an obsequious note will be dispatched with alacrity from Pretoria to Moscow congratulating Vladimir Putin on his stomping victory in the Russian presidential election this weekend. It will be yet another chance to genuflect and assure the Kremlin of our undying loyalty.
That Putin’s most formidable critic and opponent, Alexey Navalny, conveniently died in a Siberian prison only weeks before the poll is really none of our business. A victory is a victory.
Apart from a four-year detour as prime minister, Putin has been head of state since 2000, the longest since Stalin. And thanks to a constitutional amendment, he can stay in office until 2036 — a mouth-watering prospect for any would-be despot.
Things are looking up for Putin. He invaded Ukraine two year ago hoping it would be a cakewalk, and that he’d be in Kyiv within a week. But despite the heavy toll on civilians and infrastructure, the gallant Ukrainian army, outnumbered and out-resourced, has stood its ground. Ukraine has however not yet proved to be the Waterloo for Putin that some of his opponents had predicted. And he now seems to be making some headway. After initial setbacks, the Russian army, consisting mostly of conscripts and convicts, is making steady progress. Residents of the parts of Ukraine that have been captured by Russia, the so-called New Territories, can also vote in the Russian elections this weekend.
But Russia’s resurgence in the Ukraine war is a reflection of the divisions between and reluctance among Western allies to unleash the full might of Nato on behalf of Kyiv. While Putin has constantly used the alliance, and its encroachment on Russia’s doorstep, as a bogeyman to gee-up his subjects, Nato, with a far superior military force, has been tentative and unsure how far it can goad the Russian bear by arming the Ukrainians. Putin is too wily a fox not to exploit such divisions.
We’re riding on Putin’s coattails, so to speak - or that seems to be our aspiration. And we’re a diminished influence as a result
But it is in Washington where Ukraine’s goose is likely to be cooked. Russia’s recent gains on the battlefield are a direct result of a decision by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives to block aid to Ukraine, denying it the resources it needs to repel the invader. That has left Putin feeling like a dog with two tails. Money just can’t buy that sort of good fortune.
But Putin’s trump card is, yes, Donald Trump, who has proved a reliable Russian asset. Since Russians surreptitiously helped him win the 2016 presidential elections, he has been an investment that has delivered handily for the Kremlin. He’s turned the bulk of the GOP, which used to hold free markets and anti-communism as sacred creeds, into an almost fascist, insular, pro-Putin and anti-Nato sect. If Trump wins in November, which seems likely, he might pull out of the alliance.
Putin regards Nato as posing probably the biggest threat to his country and therefore its destruction cannot come soon enough. Like Putin, Trump is keen to do the dirty on Ukraine, which was the source of one of his biggest headaches as president — his impeachment over allegations he improperly sought help from Volodymyr Zelensky to boost his chances of re-election.
But of course a Trump victory has implications far beyond Ukraine’s fate. It would upend the entire international political and economic system. Rogue states would rule the roost — Trump is already making common cause with Viktor Orban, the autocratic Hungarian leader and Putin ally. Given Trump’s mysterious subservience to the Russian leader and barring any resistance from the establishment, once he’s back in the Oval Office Putin could be master of all he surveys.
A man who set out to recreate the old Soviet empire could end up as a modern-day Genghis Khan. That may be a stretch, but Putin has an insatiable appetite for power. The point though is that with the US cowed and on-side, Putin would have free rein.
In global terms, South Africa is an insignificant, floundering midget — crime-ridden, poverty-stricken, its economy stagnating, its infrastructure collapsing; despite all of which, its incompetent leadership expects, against all logic, to be taken seriously on the global stage. Punching above our weight is the phrase often used.
We wouldn’t be so interested — or invested — in the minutiae of Russian politics and skulduggery were it not that our leaders, in their clumsy effort to untangle the country from its historical ties with the West, had somehow landed us within the grateful Russian embrace.
We’re riding on Putin’s coattails, so to speak — or that seems to be our aspiration. And we’re a diminished influence as a result. In foreign relations we first cast an eye on what Moscow or Beijing would do before speaking or acting. And so even when we take decisions off our own bat, we’re often suspected of being someone else’s stooge.
On the Gaza matter at the International Court of Justice, for instance, the Israelis accused South Africa of carrying water for Hamas and/or the Iranians. Such accusations wouldn’t stick if we weren’t so eager to dance to the tune of others. We need to clean up our act at home if we are to be taken seriously in the wider world.
But our true value to the world — our diplomatic raison d’être, if you like — is to be an example or template of a peaceful transition out of conflict and of a people, previously divided, manfully coming together to forge a united future — a narrative that’s now being ruined by our association with murderous despots.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.