During this moment of reckoning for the ANC, there is much to consider. We should proceed with scientific caution, not emotion or nostalgia.
We should study recent trends in Brazil and what happened to the Swedish Social Democratic Party (SDP) and, from that, emerge with some practical steps forward.
The cases matter because their combination is what brought us here — the sins of incumbency.
There is also the case of the Labour Party in the UK. It is struggling to return to power, let alone emerge with a cogent counter to the right-wing onslaught consolidated by Brexit. There are cases in Asia too that are worth looking at, especially what happened in Malaysia in recent years.
The principal questions the ANC needs to answer are: for whom do we exist, what is our purpose and how can it be best served? From the latter we can decide whether we form a coalition or allow the “moonshot pact” to govern while we rebuild like Lula da Silva in Brazil and the SDP in Sweden.
In that scenario, we will call the next five years an interregnum during which we do a complete overhaul of the ANC, reimagine structures and operating procedures and define a clear long-term national development agenda informed by national and international realities. Was it Rosa Luxemburg who said: “Those who do not move, do not notice their chains.”
The worst that could happen is what happened in the continent and in Latin America where losing state power banishes progressive movements into the archive. That is highly possible as some among us are already searching for scapegoats, gas-lighting the public, as we have seen the ANC national chair Gwede Mantashe abandon all analysis to reduce our KwaZulu-Natal misfortunes to tribalism. Lenin warned: “A revolution is impossible without a revolutionary situation; furthermore, not every revolutionary situation leads to revolution.”
We need deep dives to understand the contemporary moment, and from that answer, Lenin's question: “What is to be done?” If there is tribalism, we bred it as the movement through unchecked factionalism and taught it through the education curriculum we designed and implemented over 30 years. Wwe should be asking, on what scientific basis do we expect the people of eThekwini to vote for us given the dramatic decline of the city and its services, overlooked by the leadership for factional considerations?
There are further examples from the Global South that can serve as valuable lessons.
In Brazil the Workers Party under the leadership of Lula managed to regain the trust of the people after years of political struggle and scandals. By focusing on social programmes, anti-poverty initiatives and coalition-building, Lula’s presidency marked a period of significant social and economic progress.
In Bolivia the Movement for Socialism successfully returned to power with Luis Arce after Evo Morales. This comeback was facilitated by a renewed focus on grassroots mobilisation and addressing the needs of the indigenous population.
In Tanzania, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party has remained relevant by continuously adapting to the changing political landscape while maintaining its foundational principles of socialism and self-reliance. By focusing on economic development, anti-corruption measures, and maintaining strong connections with rural communities, the CCM has managed to retain its position as the dominant political force.
The Communist Party of Vietnam is our most relevant case study. The party has been successful in its renewal efforts, retaining its hegemony while driving economic reform. It has been driving structural reforms for well over 30 years now. As in China, the country has a socialist-orientated market economy where both the state sector and the private sector are big players, leading to flows of foreign direct investment.
The SDP was able to rebuild and win back power in Sweden through a combination of pragmatic policy adjustments and coalition-building. After losing support due to complacency in the early 2000s, it reoriented and addressed the concerns of the people over inequality and stagnation. By forming alliances with other progressive forces and green parties, the SDP successfully returned to power, emphasising a commitment to social justice, environmental sustainability and inclusive economic growth.
A short trip to Singapore would teach us a lot about three things from the People’s Action Party there: building a meritocratic and innovative state, building a vibrant economy and regaining hegemony in society while dealing harshly with all acts of corruption regardless of who is accused. Mere allegations of wrongdoing in Singapore are enough to end political careers. Most of what the Communist Party of China has achieved is a result of lessons learnt from Singapore.
The 2024 South African elections have brought us in the ANC closer. While some rogues may have left the party, those who are committed stayed and campaigned for victory. The campaign by former leaders was a significant moment from which we should build to close ranks, bury old rivalries and build for the future. That is the basis upon which we must proceed and keep the people at the centre of all our considerations, and of course the state and capital.
The 2024 South African elections have brought us in the ANC closer. While some rogues may have left the party, those who are committed stayed and campaigned for victory
Yes, I said it: capital. We are after all a movement that claims to believe in the mixed economy model and our policies have seen a dramatic increase in capital in this country. A strong state achieves its key objectives by working closely with capital, enabling it to create value and disciplining it through rules and transparent processes where necessary. We have to factor in what will happen to business in our calculations.
We are being watched globally by progressive and reactionary forces alike. For some, this moment collapses the South African exceptionalism theory — we are like everyone else and we will fall into the sharp jaws of neoliberalism. We might soon have a president who abandons Palestine and make South Africa turn its back on the global south. As inequality continues to bite, the country will slide further into chaos and new racial conflicts could emerge. And it will be us, the movement, who will have to take responsibility if this scenario materialises because when we had a chance to bury factionalism, build state capacity and focus on serving the people, we got entangled in moral temptations and ethical dilemmas.
Our path forward must be guided by the lessons of our international friends, the wisdom of our revolutionary forebears and the wishes of the people we serve. We must ensure that our struggle for justice and equality continues with renewed vigour and clarity.
This is a moment of growth for all of us, calling for maturity and the eschewing of personal interests in favour the national good. As fraternal parties have done elsewhere, if the final outcomes disfavour our movement, we must not become a rebel movement. We must allow our wide patronage networks to collapse, find alternative livelihoods for members and accept that political life is about delicately managing contradictions, even if they result in the subordination of our desires in the best interest of the nation.
• Busani Ngcaweni is the principal of the National School of Government
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