In many ways South Africa is a different country this morning, and in many ways it is the same old confusing and disturbing mess. On Friday the ruling ANC and the official opposition, the DA, signed a “statement of intent” to form a government of national unity. President Cyril Ramaphosa will be quietly relieved.
Strictly speaking, it isn’t a government of national unity at all but a multiparty government or, slightly less generous to the feel-good spirit currently being contrived, a grand coalition between the two of them, with smaller parties such as the IFP, the PA, Rise Mzansi and perhaps others welcome to join if they choose.
The terms of each agreement may differ but only the DA’s 21.8% vote in the May 29 elections can alone guarantee the parliamentary survival of the ANC, whose vote collapsed by 17 percentage points to just 40.2%.
Only a fraction of South African politics happens in parliament, however, and the ANC faces a stiff test in the rest of the country in the months ahead. The DA cannot protect it in Mthatha, in Polokwane, Malelane or Thohoyandou. Smaller opposition parties will relentlessly try to destabilise the ANC, accusing it of bending the knee to financial markets and reintroducing apartheid.
Does the ANC have the courage to make a hard choice for investment-led growth above all else?
It is obviously all nonsense. Financial markets matter here because we owe them R5-trillion and it was the ANC, not the DA, that absorbed the old apartheid National Party. An exhausted and conservative electorate may well accept a marriage now between the ANC and the DA.
The Friday statement of intent is in every way a sensible move towards a political centre in a highly serviceable democracy after an inconclusive election. After yet another day of immature EFF disruption and attention-seeking in the new National Assembly, the ANC and the DA easily prevailed in electing a speaker, a deputy speaker and re-electing Ramaphosa as president.
But that is merely a beginning. This new government survives only if it can make a tangible difference in people’s lives, and the country is in a deep economic hole. It needs quick wits and quick wins. Local government elections take place in just two years and in 2027 the ANC votes in a new leadership.
Ramaphosa could contest there for a third term but it is highly unlikely and there is no obvious successor other than his disturbing deputy, Paul Mashatile. Ramaphosa is now in his final term as head of state and must leave the Union Buildings in 2029.
The only way this holds together in the face of what will be a flood of political challenges is the delivery of substantive action. The ANC needs to understand much more deeply than it currently does that the economy will grow only, literally, through investment and investment only follows returns. There are simply no new jobs without new employers to do the new investing. Investing by buying South African companies doesn’t cut it and nor do everyday operational investments by existing companies. And the rest is borrowing.
So the urgent job is to make South Africa attractive to investment and that, if we are in a hurry, may mean the ANC must now consider the one thing it always runs from — making hard choices. Its hard choice now is between rapid inflows of brand new investment and BEE. Ramaphosa’s “inclusive growth” mantra is a wild misuse of the term. It began in big industrial economies as a call for drawing workers and employers closer together. Here it is a cloak for BEE and the enrichment of an elite.
Affirmative action though is easy and widely appreciated in the investing world, as is the need to go all out to deliver services to poor black people. But actual service delivery is hard, and a combination of corruption, cadre deployment and not making that bigger choice has left us short on investment and drowning in unemployment. If we continue to not prioritise growth the results will remain the same, with or without the DA.
It’s a tough place to be. The ANC is addicted to making lists of priorities, but a priority can by definition only be one thing. Does the ANC have the courage to make a hard choice for investment-led growth above all else? For the sake of poor people desperate for jobs? It’s simply the only way to create new jobs and new wealth and now, surely, is the time for the ANC to be brave. With the DA guaranteeing it legislative protection, it’ll never have a better opportunity.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.