Now that the national cabinet is in place and provincial governments have been established, it is time to engage in meaningful discourse about the present situation.
A useful place to start would be: why do people do what they do? We either enjoy or suffer because of the actions of those who came before us. Future generations will either celebrate or curse the legacy President Cyril Ramaphosa would have bequeathed them. In the realm of legacy creation, Ramaphosa is on the last leg of his journey. But what are the top two or three needle-moving ideas he has for our nation? As American poet Maya Angelou put it: “If you’re going to live, leave a legacy. Make a mark on the world that can’t be erased.”
For Ramaphosa, the son of a policeman, twice rose to take his seat at the Union Buildings. He will also, unfortunately, be remembered as the first ANC leader to fail to maintain the ANC’s dominance at the polls. The question will be asked as to what actions he took when he saw that ANC power was dissipating. One of the main answers will be that he steered the establishment of a government of national unity (GNU) or, more appropriately, a grand multiparty coalition.
Ramaphosa may be a 'happy man' this week, but his time is limited. How he is remembered in history will depend not on the creation of the GNU, but how he uses it in the next 18 months
The decision to create a GNU is a transient masterstroke, saving the country from an imminent politico-economic meltdown. The critics of the GNU can only be silenced if the government is able to achieve something meaningful in the next six to 12 months. If nothing changes, it implies Ramaphosa is overseeing the inevitable death of the once-mighty liberation movement. He would be like a pilot grappling with his plane as it nosedived but just relieved to keep it flying even though headed for a devastating crash.
Put differently, the GNU may prove useful for the country now but it doesn’t mean the benefit will be attributable to a limping ANC which, in future elections, may suffer even more humiliating defeat. That is the existential risk facing the ANC — but not necessarily the GNU.
This political moment requires Ramaphosa to put on his thinking hat as both head of state and ANC leader and conceptualise what success for both will look like. He must convince himself that his strategy serves not merely to stabilise but also to significantly move the country forward, and also to change the ANC’s fortunes for the better. Anything short of this makes him complicit in the slow, certain death of the party of Nelson Mandela, Oliver Tambo and other legends who came before him.
To tweak Angelou’s words: if you’re going to lead, leave a legacy. To simply become a leader is insufficient — the point is to change the organisation you lead for the better.
The current moment is laden with many dangers for Ramaphosa. He tweeted that he is very happy that the GNU has been constituted. It certainly feels and smells like success. As ministers were sworn in, Ramaphosa said: “I am a happy man today.”
If constituting the GNU was hard, keeping it working will be harder, though doable. But to keep it together is not, in and of itself, a success. The many different parties in the GNU want to show voters what they could do if entrusted with more responsibilities. For example, Gayton MacKenzie of the Patriotic Alliance will try to show us that he is more passionate about sport than any minister of sport we’ve ever had.
The DA, which has struggled with diversity, has already said through its leader John Steenhuisen that it will become the biggest supporter of black farmers. The obvious idea is to appeal to black voters. As a party stuck around the lower twenties in percentage vote performance, the DA’s participation in the GNU will become an opportunity to turn its fortunes around, to show that even though it is white and male-led it could be the biggest champion of transformation. Politically, that’s the risk facing Ramaphosa and the ANC.
But for Ramaphosa it is of absolute importance that the people appointed to represent the ANC in the cabinet and provincial governments are seen to have a revitalised work temperament. It will not be enough for the ministers and MECs to deliver services, they must also work hard so that the electorate is left in no doubt that the ANC has shed its lethargic nature and become deserving of their votes in the next election.
The task is Herculean. And there isn’t much time before the 2026 local government elections. The ANC must prove it has turned a corner, showcasing a rapid delivery of services over this time and before voters return to the polls. Even if there’s a chimera of hope that the ANC will recover, there are difficult conversations it must still have that should precede any recovery. The biggest of these is why the ANC is losing the confidence of the voters and what it needs to do to turn the tide.
The answers to these questions will force the ANC to look inward. It will see comrades who don’t perform, others who steal, others who are tribalists, others too old to be effective while some, though young, are simply lazy. The difficult conversations will force it to look at its leadership and ask if it is capable of creating an environment where the ANC can reconstitute its winning ways. Ramaphosa must be decisive and stop being so slow. Meanwhile, ANC branches will feverishly start discussing a year from now who will succeed Ramaphosa, prematurely rendering him a lame duck leader.
Ramaphosa may be a “happy man” this week, but his time is limited. How he is remembered in history will depend not on the creation of the GNU, but how he uses it in the next 18 months.
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