The government of national unity (GNU) will have to deliver on expectations. If it doesn’t, it is likely that its key members, the ANC, DA and IFP, will fare terribly in the 2029 elections, and populist parties of the Left such as the EFF and MK party may come to power.
This is in the interests of all the GNU parties, especially the ANC, DA and IFP, which are being challenged by upstarts, whether populist parties such as the EFF or MK, or ethnic-based parties such as the Patriotic Alliance and the National Coloured Congress (previously the Cape Coloured Congress).
The ANC has the most to lose if the GNU is unable to solve South Africa’s key challenges, with the party likely to even halve the support it receives in the 2029 election, possibly dropping from 39.7% of the vote in May to about 20% or lower.
The Left-leaning opposition populist parties MK, EFF, ATM and smaller parties now have about 25% of the vote and can potentially lift their support to the mid-40s in 2029, taking votes from the ANC, if the GNU misfires. These populists parties then would be able to put together a governing coalition with smaller parties.
The DA may lose votes to the coloured-nationalist parties such as the PA and the Cape Coloured Congress (CCC). The PA and the CCC now attract less than 3% of the vote but could collectively at least double that. The coloured vote is core for the DA and the party needs to nurture and reward it more than is now the case, especially now that new parties are specifically targeting this constituency.
Both the ANC and DA are in danger of losing votes to ActionSA and Build One South Africa (Bosa), now outside the GNU but working on an item-by-item basis with the ANC in Johannesburg. The IFP may also lose votes to the MK if the GNU does not deliver.
There are opportunities for both ActionSA and Bosa to, in opposition, turn themselves into sensible, centrist, constitution-based parties with a “social” market orientation and a business-friendly and civil society-friendly nonracial alternative to the populist EFF, MKP and ATM, which are anti-market, anti-business, anti-civil society and anti-constitution, and perceived to be not widely racially inclusive.
The PA is populist, anti-constitutional and ethnic-based. However, though the PA is in the GNU, it may escape losing votes if the GNU fails. In fact, it is likely to secure more votes even if the GNU does poorly, partly because its leader Gayton McKenzie combines a populist approach with down-to-earth personal charm, marketing himself as a reborn Christian and energetically executing government tasks.
Rise Mzansi, a party established as pragmatic, nonracial and youth-led, with new political players and a social-democratic orientation, also has a chance, like the PA, to gain more votes even if the GNU falters. However, Rise Mzansi is more vulnerable than the PA because it competes directly with Bosa, which has a similar orientation, and the ANC’s social democratic wing, which is associated with President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Both the ANC and DA are in danger of losing votes to ActionSA and Build One South Africa (Bosa), now outside the GNU but working on an item-by-item basis with the ANC in Johannesburg
ActionSA is similar to Bosa and Rise Mzansi. There are opportunities for both ActionSA and Bosa in opposition if they can clearly differentiate themselves as pro-constitution, pragmatic, nonracial, pro-civil society and pro-business, but with “social” market orientation, in contrast to the populist, anti-constitutional and only superficially racially inclusive MK-led “progressive caucus” opposition grouping. To do so, ActionSA and Bosa must be able to show they will able to create jobs, particularly for the youth, build mass housing and promote the rule of law.
ActionSA’s and Bosa’s fortunes will heavily depend on whether they can, outside the GNU, successfully transform into effective opposition parties which hold the GNU to account based on common sense and whether they can become the grassroots voice for communities, not just in legislatures.
The former parties of the Multiparty Charter (Moonshot Pact), such as the DA and IFP, and Rise Mzansi, that was not a member of the charter, is that they have to hyper-perform in their GNU portfolios to show the country they can competently deliver so that even if the GNU fails they can prove that have been successful in their portfolios.
To do so, they will have to outshine the ANC ministers, which will not be difficult, but outside the GNU they will have to modernise their parties to become more appealing, relevant and responsive to the needs of voters, and so woo disgruntled ANC voters and give new hope to the millions of citizens who did not vote in the May elections.
• William Gumede is founder of Democracy Works Foundation and author of ‘Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times’ (Tafelberg)
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