Former ANC and South African president Jacob Zuma’s long-term political strategy appears to be a reverse takeover of the ANC through his uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party and the EFF. If the ANC had formed a national coalition with MK and the EFF after the May general elections, it may have opened a quicker route for Zuma to execute a reverse takeover of the ANC.
It is very likely that Zuma formed his new party, using the name of the ANC’s now disbanded armed wing, to give the impression that MK is an “affiliate” of the ANC, not unlike, say, the ANC youth or women’s leagues — to be in prime position to return to the ANC, as if he never left, and take over the party.
The most likely reason Zuma refused to resign as a member of the ANC after he formed MK, was to place himself inside the ANC to more easily effect a reverse takeover in the future.
A reverse takeover is by no means a far-fetched idea. There are deep divisions in the ANC between those who favour a partnership with the MK-EFF, the remnants of the so-called “radical economic transformation” (RET) faction, and those who are happy with the ANC’s current government of national unity (GNU) with the former multiparty charter (MPC) “moonshot pact” members, the DA, IFP and the Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus).
At present, the Gauteng ANC has become the rallying base for ANC leaders and members opposed to the ANC’s GNU with the DA-IFP-FF Plus. The ANC’s tripartite alliance partners, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and Cosatu, are also opposed to the GNU and wanted the ANC to partner with the EFF-MK. There is therefore a delicate relationship between the two ANC factions.
ANC leaders opposed to a coalition with the MPC group can be persuaded over time to push the ANC to change allegiance to the MK-EFF. Zuma has attacked the current ANC as the “Ramaphosa ANC”, to emphasise that the party has supposedly been hijacked by President Cyril Ramaphosa. It is no accident that Zuma continues to attack the GNU, going to court to stop the alliance being called a government of national unity.
Clearly, Zuma is using his attack on the GNU to mobilise the faction in the ANC opposed to the GNU. EFF leader Julius Malema has been very clear in the past in preferring an ANC-EFF-MK coalition, which would be in his view a reconstruction of the “old” ANC. The EFF and MK would be its populist left wings — its RET factions, now formally organised as parties, but still part of the ANC.
One of the reasons for Zuma to insist that he is still an ANC member, though he had already launched MK, was to convey the message to the ANC rank-and-file that MK is part of the ANC, but an independent party, as the SACP is part of the ANC, but still a separate party. It then would be an ANC coalition like the ANC tripartite alliance with the SACP and Cosatu, where SACP or Cosatu leaders can become leaders of the ANC and government, including the president of the ANC and the country.
Zuma’s persuading Floyd Shivambu to join MK is not only about securing him to build the organisation of MK. It is to help bring not only the EFF closer to MK, but also the ANC’s RET faction faction, towards an ANC-MK-EFF grouping.
A secondary objective appears to be the merging of MK and the EFF. Shivambu’s move to MK as national organiser could potentially take many EFF members to MK. Not surprisingly, Shivambu, responding to questions from the press at MK’s press conference this week, emphasised the idea that MK could be the vehicle to “take back” the ANC.
Right now, Ramaphosa is the glue that holds together the ANC factions. He will leave as ANC president at the party’s upcoming national elective conference in 2027. There is no guarantee that Ramaphosa will be allowed to remain as the country’s president when he is no longer the ANC president. Whoever takes over from Ramaphosa may not necessarily be in favour of an ANC-MPC GNU, but could favour an ANC-EFF-MK coalition.
This means if Ramaphosa is succeeded by a pro-MK-EFF candidate, and he is asked to leave the country’s presidency when his term as party president ends, there could potentially be an ANC-EFF-MK national governing coalition midway between elections.
If the MK-EFF group joins with the ANC in a national coalition, they could have a majority if they combine with current ANC, SACP and Cosatu leaders that oppose an ANC-MPC GNU. This way, Zuma could still achieve a reverse takeover of the ANC, sooner rather than later.
• William Gumede is Founder of the Democracy Works Foundation and author of ‘Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times’ (Tafelberg).
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