The outcome of the ANC’s succession battle, which will determine who will take over as party leader from Cyril Ramaphosa, will depend on the success of the government of national unity (GNU).
The GNU reached 100 days of its existence this week. The success or failure of this project will also determine whether Ramaphosa will remain the country’s president when his term as party president ends in 2027, when the ANC has its five-yearly national elective conference.
Only by making a success of the GNU will Ramaphosa be able to become the first ANC leader to remain the country’s president for a full term after his party presidency expires. Formerpresidents Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma were pushed out as presidents of the country when they were no longer ANC presidents.
A perceived failure of the GNU would embolden the anti-GNU ANC faction to do the same to Ramaphosa.
There is strong opposition to the GNU within the ANC, as well as from parties that have broken away from it, such as the MKP and the EFF, which are working to make it fail. A collapse of the GNU could help Zuma orchestrate a new national governing coalition between the ANC, the EFF and the MK Party.
The main division in the ANC now is between those who support its partnership with the DA and the IFP, and those who want a partnership with the MKP and the EFF.
A collapse of the GNU could help former ANC and South African president Jacob Zuma orchestrate a new national governing coalition between the ANC, the EFF and the MK Party
It appears there is a three-way battle within the ANC to take over from Ramaphosa. ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula is allied to Ramaphosa and is desperately defending the ANC’s partnership with the DA and the IFP.
Two would-be successors — Paul Mashatile, deputy president of both the ANC and South Africa, and Panyaza Lesufi, the ANC’s Gauteng leader — are in the camp opposing Ramaphosa and Mbalula.
Zuma’s MKP and Julius Malema’s EFF are working hard to undermine the GNU, trying to sabotage it by driving a wedge between ANC leaders, members and supporters who oppose the GNU and those who support it. MKP and EFF leaders are disseminating the narrative, particularly online, that the ANC has partnered with former “oppressors”, presenting the DA as the successor to the apartheid-era National Party.
This strategy is particularly effective, given that many glean all they know about politics from social media, which often contains ahistorical disinformation. The MKP, the EFF and ANC opponents of the GNU are also trying to show that the “white DA” is controlling the “black” ANC, playing on black fears of white domination.
ANC opponents of the partnership with the DA and the IFP share similar sentiments to those of the MKP and the EFF, and their criticisms and attacks appear indistinguishable from those of their political adversaries, especially on social media.
Mashatile has gone strategically silent, not visibly attacking the GNU or Ramaphosa. He appears to be biding his time, ensuring he is ready to step up if the GNU falters. Lesufi, on the other hand, appears to be taking his opposition to the GNU public, positioning himself ahead of Mashatile as a potential ANC presidential successor.
Lesufi’s first salvo was his refusal to include the DA in any substantial way in the Gauteng provincial cabinet after the May elections, contrary to the wishes of Ramaphosa and Mbalula.
On Thursday, Lesufi again appeared to triumph against Ramaphosa and Mbalula when he helped engineer the ousting of Tshwane DA mayor Cilliers Brink, bringing about a new city-governing coalition of the ANC, the EFF and ActionSA. This is his second success against the Ramaphosa and Mbalula pro-GNU group and, given the silence of Mashatile, positions Lesufi as the leading candidate at this stage to take over from Ramaphosa.
The danger is that anti-GNU ANC supporters working in government will be emboldened to undermine the success of the GNU. This latest victory by the anti-GNU faction in getting rid of Brink may encourage them to weaken the GNU.
It is critical that Ramaphosa pushes back against these individuals, or they will bring down the GNU — and with it Ramaphosa’s ability to complete his term of office as South African president when his party presidency ends.
* Gumede is an associate professor in the Wits School of Governance and the author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg)
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