In a speech this week at the UN General Assembly, President Cyril Ramaphosa stood firm in his conviction that the government of national unity (GNU) was the vehicle that would drive South Africa towards a stable and economically viable path.
Ramaphosa was the champion and the chief architect of the GNU which marks 100 days in office today. This grand coalition has ushered in a renewed interest in South Africa from world leaders and foreign investors all of which, Ramaphosa hopes, will translate to South Africa turning its economic fortunes around.
Speaking in New York this week, Ramaphosa boasted that South Africa’s democracy was flourishing and that the country was at the cusp of a new era of great promise.
“Our economy has started to improve, and investor confidence is on the rise. Our country’s prospects look bright.”
Ramaphosa's sentiments are not wrong. The GNU has renewed South Africans and has the potential to blur the racial lines which had become a chokehold in our society.
The decision by voters to dismantle one-party political dominance has the prospects to engulf a passion for service by our politicians, rather than the passion for them to be serviced.
Just recently MoneyWeb reported that the formation of the GNU has triggered a wave of investment announcements and positive sentiment not seen in years, spurring hope that Africa’s biggest economy may finally be finding its footing after a lost decade-and-a-half.
The publication reported that just days after the GNU came into effect, Qatar Airways bought a stake in Airlink, Toyota invested R1.1bn in an auto-parts facility, and Anglo American announced a $625m iron-ore investment.
This is in stark contrast to what was projected of South Africa's prospects — not long ago feared to be headed to become a failed state — months before the elections.
In February, Business Day reported foreign investors had offloaded a net R1-trillion from SA’s bond and equity markets over the past 10 years, triggered by successive credit downgrades, the sharp deterioration in the country’s fiscal position, rampant corruption, and the sustained decline of state-owned entities.
South Africa's socioeconomic divide was also widening as witnessed during the 2021 unrest. Pervasive racial tensions polluted the country, our moral fibre was at a crossroads with an uncontrollable pandemic of gender-based violence while political parties leveraged on the divide.
Ramaphosa, who in the past often straddled the fence between party and state, is now showing himself to be more of a country, rather than a party leader.
But even with this economic jolt, Ramaphosa's captaincy of the GNU isn’t guaranteed to last. In fact the whole GNU arrangement could be just the weapon his detractors within his party need to depose him.
We will continue to intensify our standing opposition to any right-wing shift in government composition and policy, making our views clear for all to know
— SA Communist Party
His public remarks, however, suggest that he is confident of brushing aside any anti-GNU sentiment within ANC ranks as the party prepares for a crucial midterm national gathering next winter. In a recent interview with the Sunday Times, Ramaphosa believed he had the backing of the ANC’s grassroots structures on working with the DA.
Who can blame him? His comrades in the top echelons of the ANC have stood by him despite apprehension over a coalition which includes the DA and the FF+.
One such leader is Gwede Mantashe who, until the last minute, held a view that the ANC should rather form a minority government made up of itself, the EFF and the IFP.
But once the decision was taken, Mantashe — who has steered Ramaphosa through rough waters — immediately fell into line. All of this makes Ramaphosa’s influence within the ruling party palpable even though he led the ANC to its worst election yet.
However, the most visible threat to him and the GNU comes from the ANC’s alliance partners in the form of the SA Communist Party (SACP). The most recent statement issued by the SACP makes it clear that its general secretary Solly Mapaila is not “a lone voice” in his characterisation of the GNU as “problematic”.
“To give practical expression to this, we will continue to intensify our standing opposition to any right-wing shift in government composition and policy, making our views clear for all to know,” the party said.
The SACP's position gives credence to speculation that Ramaphosa could face a tough battle when the ANC meets for its midterm policy review next year. While those within the NEC have refrained from speaking publicly, it’s undeniable that the SACP does not stand alone in its position.
Though the NEC is not a vehicle to unseat an ANC president, much like in the Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma years, it might prove to be the platform to erode Ramaphosa's influence in the party and propel his detractors to topple his rule earlier than anticipated.
To some of Ramaphosa’s detractors within the ANC-led alliance, Zuma’s conspiracy theory that suggests that it was always Ramaphosa’s desire to weaken the ANC to such a point that it would be forced to work closely with the DA rings true. Hence their wish to see him weakened or even removed from power before the conclusion of his second term as ANC president in 2027.
But where does all of this leave the ANC which, in its propaganda, is selling its heavy losses at the May 29 polls as a “setback”?
Do they realise that they may never taste an outright parliamentary majority again, that with or without “renewal”, future elections under a proportional representation system would likely mean that one would have to form coalitions to be in government, sometimes even with those regarded as their ideological foes?
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