It’s a hard-baked, even durable, and typically South African miracle moment, though with a Trump victory on the cards next month (I fear) and the Israelis itching to put Iran to the sword (which they easily could), there are many ways in which the world and our fragile economy, could quickly be turned on its head. But closer to home the biggest threat to our newfound bliss is already among us and already rolling down the track.
When President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Basic Education Laws Amendment (Bela) Bill into law last month, he pulled two clauses pending a three-month period of negotiation. Clauses 4 and 5 take away the powers of school governing bodies to decide what languages their schools teach in and who to admit. By Ramaphosa’s deadline, the clauses need to done and dusted by Christmas.
That’s clever — Christmas is when no-one’s looking. But behind the last-minute decision to pull the clauses is a hugely consequential question, the answer to which we will soon know. Does Afrikaans have a future in South Africa and what are Afrikaners prepared to do to save it?
Ramaphosa was persuaded to pause the clauses after John Steenhuisen, the DA leader and a member of the GNU cabinet, implored him to talk first to the leadership of Solidarity, the many-tentacled union and Afrikaner cultural movement. Solidarity told Ramaphosa that once control over school language and admissions policy passed from parents to provincial education departments as per the bill, Afrikaans schools would be overwhelmed by pupils wanting to be taught in English.
Ramaphosa will appreciate the DA dilemma. His dilemma is that if he ignores the DA and Bela goes ahead as originally drafted, the party might leave the GNU
And it is right. Of all the strong Afrikaans-medium universities in South Africa in 1994, Potchefstroom is really the only one now where you can still get a degree in Afrikaans. An entire academic language hangs by a thread. Just deserts, you might say, given that Afrikaans was the language of oppression here for so long. But the alternative is English?
Solidarity has a million paid-up members and it is spoiling for a fight. For this fight in particular. Its leaders told Ramaphosa in late-night calls they regarded the Bela issue as a “fight for survival” and “an act of aggression towards us”.
“Education is part of the soul of Afrikaners,” they later wrote to him. “Our experience is that Bela does not make us partners, but opponents.” Solidarity is able to exert extraordinary pressure on the DA and the FF+, both of whom get votes from its members. If the DA cannot stop or dramatically change clauses 4 and 5 it risks losing literally all its Afrikaans-speaking vote.
Ramaphosa will appreciate the DA dilemma. His dilemma is that if he ignores the DA and Bela goes ahead as originally drafted, the party might leave the GNU; but if he appeases the DA, he risks fuelling a growing anti-GNU rebellion led by Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi in his own party. And we know Ramaphosa is scared of the ANC. The box he always needs to tick in moments of high tension is his own political security.
It’s a big moment for Afrikaners though, and not just white ones. Their language is under unprecedented pressure. A decision by Naspers to close most of its big newspapers, including Rapport and Beeld, is also a serious assault on the language, possibly more so than Bela.
No-one will read a Sunday newspaper of the current quality of Rapport online. Nothing better represents the breadth and depth of Afrikaner culture. Its closure would be an unspeakable cultural tragedy, and utterly unnecessary too. Naspers is one of the richest media companies in the world and it should behave like one. Solidarity is strangely silent on the matter.
In the meantime, there will be some tough negotiating already going on behind the scenes and in the GNU disputes mechanism around Bela. The issue has to be resolved before schools reopen next January.
I have little doubt the DA will simply recall its ministers in the GNU if they cannot reach an adequate compromise on Bela. Municipal coalitions and the NHI bill are one thing and not as pressing; losing a large chunk of your electoral base is entirely another.
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