As the government of national unity (GNU) evolves, South Africa must adapt or suffer the consequences. The adaptation process, however, is usually plodding, if it happens at all.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s call to steer the country into a service delivery-focused direction has thus far enjoyed the support of the markets and significant sections within his party. This is notwithstanding resistance from within ANC ranks, mainly at the behest of an unfolding succession battle. The internal difficulty he has encountered is no surprise.
Since the formalisation of the new split on December 16 2023, the unity of the governing party on several policy matters has been vulnerable, and this is acute over the GNU.
The May elections revealed a new challenge for the ANC: a phase in which its coalition partner choices would be measured against the matrices of stabilising the country and securing the continuity of the constitutional and democratic order. Weighing heavily on the party would also be the interests of Luthuli House juxtaposed with those of its provincial and regional nodal centres.
From the start, the GNU was postured or framed to be about getting South Africa working again. It was presented with a narrative that South Africans wanted national unity, as summarised by the statement of intent. The deeper politics to justify it included a message that any coalition that excluded the 20% of the DA in the polls might be, or is, antithetical to national unity.
The politics of South Africa will have to enter the competitive realm expected of a vibrant multiparty democracy without ignoring that our past has bequeathed to us a robust yet fragile political system
At 100 days, there are emerging matrices to measure the GNU’s successes, failures and challenges. As a national unity project in a state without a “nation”, the GNU brought euphoria and energy reminiscent of the immediate post-1994 era.
As fate would have it, the performance of national teams — be they in rugby, soccer or the Olympics — confirmed the existence of requisite energy demonstration as an indicator of a content society inside those moments.
The GDP growth numbers and the interest rate reduction are seen as indicators of an economy that is bottoming up. The 200th day of no load-shedding, which coincided with the 100th day of the GNU, a restructured approach on how to manage SOEs that are the commanding heights of the economy, a recalibrated outlook towards the network industries (of energy, water and logistics) and a renewed vigour to manage immigration control are all associable with the co-operative character of the GNU’s national executive.
Lagging, but receiving attention, are crime, unemployment, poverty and inequality. While the GNU has recalibrated the template of political power management, it has not yet demonstrated that it has the capability and commitment to recalibrate, if not fracture, the stubborn templates of economic dominance.
It will be the review of the medium-term budget expenditure framework that will show the expression of national unity in financial terms when the Treasury minister reads it.
In the Tshwane metro, the spatial expression of the city’s budget, arguably one of the compelling reasons for the latest and new government of local unity, has demonstrated how coalition arrangements in South Africa are vulnerable.
Suppose the ANC is still pursuing the national democratic revolution, and the NDR is still a process of struggle to transfer power to “we the people”. In that case, the GNU coalition arrangements would require an evaluation matrix that measures the extent of the power transfer. The matrix should reflect how the power being transferred is political, economic, and social control. In the past 100 days, the GNU has demonstrated that it is essentially about the respect, promotion, protection and fulfilment of the Bill of Rights.
On the international front, South Africa has seen a rise in sensitivity towards the concept of national interests. The showing at the China-Africa summit by the GNU team of ministers led by Ramaphosa presented a South Africa in pursuit of national interests. The promotion and protection of national sovereignty and constitutional order, wellbeing, safety and prosperity of “we the people”, and a better Africa and world, has become the central feature of policy discourse across political parties.
Despite the divisive way the GNU has been projected, the battle for the centre of South African politics is within all political parties, arguably including those professing to be the Left.
The GNU decision has always been a leadership call. The politics of South Africa will have to enter the competitive realm expected of a vibrant multiparty democracy without ignoring that our past has bequeathed to us a robust yet fragile political system. As the country settles into a GNU mode, it should manage its fragility in the face of unanticipated threats that might otherwise look revolutionary if the exigencies of building a nonracial, nonsexist, united, democratic and prosperous South Africa are put on the back burner.
• Mathebula is a public policy analyst, the founder of The Thinc Foundation, and a research associate at Tshwane University of Technology
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