It’s perhaps not an exaggeration to suggest that the world is on tenterhooks. In just over a week from now the whole international order could be about to be turned on its head. It’s not often that the possible election of a US president would simultaneously send shockwaves through Western capitals while being welcomed with undisguised glee in Moscow. But there’s never before been a candidate like Donald Trump, the scandal-ridden former president, who is, once again, within striking distance of the White House.
Apart from the absolute mayhem he’s likely to cause in the US itself, it is Trump’s foreign policy agenda that has the world worried, especially America’s close Western allies. He’s no friend of Nato, the military alliance that’s been the bedrock of Western security since World War 2, which he accuses of having ridden on the backs of American taxpayers for far too long. But most worrying for most Americans is Trump's attitude towards Russia, America’s fiercest foe, and especially his toadying up to Vladimir Putin, which they find inexplicable and embarrassing. He’s called Putin “a genius” for invading Ukraine and, almost mimicking the Kremlin’s talking points, blamed Putin’s escapade on Nato’s expansion.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called Trump “a dear friend” and there are common traits between the two. Despite the destruction and human suffering already witnessed in Gaza, Trump has urged Netanyahu to “finish the job”. In the event of a Trump victory next month therefore, any prospect for peace in the Middle East, now dimmer than it’s ever been, could be extinguished totally.
It's still hard to believe that a country such as the US, with the strongest economy on the planet, a long democratic tradition and a supposedly sophisticated electorate, could have produced such a flawed candidate as Trump. And it’s not as if they don’t know who he is. They witnessed the chaos he created as president the first time. But as one of his supporters said this week, Trump’s shortcomings have already been “baked in”. He’s survived controversies that in the past could have easily felled more accomplished candidates. He seems to thrive on, and even profit from, his scandals.
One of his former top military advisers has called him “a fascist to the core”, but that doesn’t seem have made a dent in his popularity. Even the media, which has played no small part in his elevation, seems intimidated. This week the Jeff Bezos-owned Washington Post, whose courageous coverage of the Watergate scandal forced president Richard Nixon out of power, followed the Los Angeles Times in deciding not to endorse a presidential candidate. As one wag ruefully observed, the media “are obeying in advance”. Katharine Graham must be turning in her grave.
As the campaign enters a frenetic final week, polls show the two candidates, Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice-President Kamala Harris, running neck and neck, with Harris slightly ahead. But it’s through the electoral college, not necessarily the majority of voters, that the president is elected, and currently that seems to favour Trump. The election is delicately poised, and any result is possible.
What’s also giving Trump’s political foes sleepless nights is that polls have often underestimated his support. He defied the form book in 2016 by gaining a surprise victory over Hillary Clinton. Four years later in 2020, Joe Biden was expected to coast to victory in a landslide but only managed to squeak through after a surprisingly strong showing by Trump. Part of the problem, it seems, was the fact that many voters were reluctant or embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they would support Trump. But such inhibitions are a thing of the past. He has consolidated his position, and the GOP is now Trump’s party.
But political polls have also been shown to be unreliable. During the midterm elections two years ago, for instance, every poll predicted that the Republican party would sweep the board in a so-called red wave. Instead, the Republicans failed to retake the Senate as expected and only scraped through with a tiny majority in the House of Representatives. That has given Democrats hope that maybe this time it is Harris’s chances that are being underestimated by the polling.
What’s also giving Trump’s political foes sleepless nights is that polls have often underestimated his support. He defied the form book in 2016 by gaining a surprise victory over Hillary Clinton
Looming over these elections is obviously Israel’s invasion of Gaza, and the awful deaths and destruction that have followed. Biden has given Israel unstinting support since the atrocious events of October 7 last year when Hamas killed more than 1,000 Israelis and took more than two hundred people hostage. He’s given them every weapon they need and, crucially, the US has stoutly defended Israel against any censure by the UN Security Council.
But Netanyahu has shown no appreciation of that, and has repeatedly ignored Biden’s calls for a ceasefire. He seems intent on helping Trump win the presidency. The families of the hostages accuse him of using the Hamas attack to further his political agenda rather than rescue their loved ones. Like Trump, he faces several charges of corruption and is therefore desperate to stay out of jail. And by driving Palestinians out of the occupied areas he’s hoping to nullify the internationally-approved plan for a two-state solution, which he opposes. Netanyahu seems to believe that his agenda would be better served with Trump in the White House.
The war has not been without political cost for Biden. His support for Israel despite the carnage in Gaza, and notwithstanding his belated call for a ceasefire, has alienated many young voters, who are among his key constituencies, and may have contributed to him dropping out of the race. Harris seems reluctant to break with Biden on the Middle East despite fears that it could cost her votes, especially in states with large Arab and Muslim populations such as Michigan.
But the biggest beneficiary of a Trump victory would no doubt be Putin. He’s already interfering in the US elections to get the outcome he wants. Trump has performed something of a minor miracle in transforming a historically hawkish Republican party — Ronald Reagan referred to the former Soviet Union as the "evil empire" — into something close to a Putin appreciation society. Trump has boasted about his friendship with Putin, saying he would solve the crisis in Ukraine within 24 hours — meaning Ukraine would be toast if he became president.
Should Trump prevail on November 5, there’s no doubt three of the most controversial politicians of our age would rule the roost, with Putin at the top of the pile. That would be a real turn-up for the books.
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