Drivers on the N1 heading north at this time of year will see to the east of them that the fields are brown, with farmers hard at work tilling the land. On the other side, the fields will remain untouched until about mid-November, when it is their turn to enjoy the summer rains.
The eastern regions typically receive earlier rains than the western regions, which can expect to receive summer rains roughly a month later. These variations in rainfall guide the start of the maize planting season. Us agriculturalists agree that farmers should till their land from mid-October in the east, and mid-November in the west. Each of these has its preferred crop: the east is primarily suited to yellow maize and soybeans while white maize and sunflower seeds prefer the western aspect.
If you ask any our fictional drivers what they may have observed, some will tell you that the weather has been rather windy with not as much rain as expected. The vegetation remains relatively drier.
If you talk to farmers in rural regions of Limpopo or outside eKomani in the Eastern Cape, they will tell you that the effect of the midsummer drought of 2024 still lingers, resulting in much-reduced planting activity.
This is concerning. Some agricultural analysts speculate that the 2024-25 season may be a continuation of the misery of 2023-24, when the February 2024 heatwave led to major crop losses. South Africa's 2023-24 summer grains and oilseeds harvest fell by 23% year-on-year (y/y), to 15.39-million tonnes. This encompasses maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. The El Niño-induced drought was more severe in Southern Africa, with Zimbabwe and Zambia, among others, losing over half of their maize harvest.
For some time now, we have received various forecasts suggesting that we are moving towards the La Niña weather phenomenon for the 2024-25 season, which could result in a continuation of the misery of 2023-24. This weather phenomenon typically has the opposite affect of an El Niño in Southern Africa; it brings above-normal rainfall.
Since we have not yet received the higher rainfall, we suspect it is a matter of timing, but most forecasts point to prospects of favourable rainfall. This implies that the recovery period may be in sight, and the farmers are optimistic. On October 29, South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee indicated that farmers intend to plant 4,47-million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds — up by 1% from the previous season.
The planting intentions for white maize are at 1.58-million hectares (up 1% y/y), and yellow maize is at 1.06-million hectares (down 2% y/y). The overall maize planting intentions are at 2,64-million hectares (up 0.2% y/y), which aligns with the five-year average. The planting intentions for soybeans are at 1.2-million hectares (up by 0.2% y/y), the largest area on record. The sunflower seed planting intention is 540,000 hectares (up 2.1% y/y), slightly below the average planting of 554,000 hectares. The planting intentions for groundnuts are 40,000 hectares (down 2.9% y/y), sorghum at 54,000 hectares (up 28% y/y), and dry beans at 45,000 hectares (up 14% y/y).
There are three primary drivers of this optimism. First, the relatively higher grains and oilseed prices on the back of the poor harvest in the past season provide an incentive for increased planting in the upcoming season. Second, the season starts with relatively better-priced input costs. Most fertiliser product prices were down by roughly 10% y/y in rand terms in September compared with the previous year. Since fertiliser accounts for about a third of the grain farmers' input costs, such a price decline significantly improves farmers' finances.
An important point to underscore here is that 'normal' weather conditions in a summer season imply regular rainfall, not drought or 'El Niño'
Also worth noting is that, in rand terms, herbicide prices were down by about 20% in August 2024 compared with the same period last year. The prices of insecticides were down by roughly 15% in August 2024. Since herbicides and insecticides comprise about 10% of grain farmers' input costs, declining prices help with operational costs. The stronger domestic currency, combined with the decline of these prices in the international market, is a significant factor behind the decrease in domestic prices. The recent easing in fuel prices at a time of high usage during planting is another positive factor.
Lastly, the prospects of a La Niña-induced rainfall results in a positive outlook in South Africa. Though most regions have not yet received any meaningful rains it is still early, and we suspect there could be a late start to the season.
The comforting observation is that the major weather forecasters continue to see the likelihood of the La Niña event this season. On October 15, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported that “the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Outlook is now at La Niña Watch, meaning there remain some signs that a La Niña may form later in 2024”. The Columbia Climate School at Columbia University sees the probability of a La Niña occurrence at over 60% between October 2024 and January 2025. From February, the prospects slow to below 50%, with normal weather conditions dominating throughout the summer season.
An important point to underscore here is that “normal” weather conditions in a summer season imply regular rainfall, not drought or “El Niño”. Therefore, the normalising weather prospects from February should not be a significant worry.
Admittedly, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has been more cautious than its peers to make a bold call on where we are regarding the weather prospects. On October 5, in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, the SAWS stated: “The ENSO is still in a neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. Current predictions indicate the development of a La Niña state during the start of the summer season; however, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions. It is advised to monitor the ENSO system during the start of the summer season, as it may change the rainfall outlook for the summer rainfall regions if and when the La Niña materialises.”
Overall, these are intentions to plant, not actual area decisions. The preliminary area planting decisions will only be out at the end of January 2025. Over the coming weeks, my focus will be on rainfall conditions and the progress of plantings across the country. I remain optimistic that crop production in South Africa and Southern Africa may recover, but the season will be delayed later than usual.
• Sihlobo is an agricultural economist
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