We should know this week who has won the US presidential election, billed as the country’s most important vote in decades. In prospect is the possible return of Republican Donald Trump to the White House, which could pose risks for South Africa.
The world is holding its breath, given that conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East would be affected by a Republican victory, with Trump vowing to end the war in Ukraine and provide even more support for Israel.
US democracy is also on trial in this election. Trump refused to accept his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020 and there are fears of a repeat performance should he lose to the Democratic contender, Vice-President Kamala Harris.
Given the oddities of the US electoral system, the outcome could depend on a few thousand votes in key swing states. The eventual loser could potentially win more votes nationally than the winner.
It has long been an article of faith that the differences between the two parties in the US system are marginal at best and that the broad thrust of US policy remains unchanged regardless of who occupies the White House. But in a country that is increasingly polarised, the differences between the red and blue parties are glaring.
For South Africa, which has flirted with Russia and angered the Americans by hauling Israel to the International Court of Justice on a charge of genocide, a Trump administration could present problems.
On the economic front, although South Africa has argued successfully in the past for an extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which allows duty-free access for a wide range of our exports to the US, a Trump administration may be less generous in its attitude to South Africa’s tendency to play both sides of the global ideological divide.
Whoever is the winner in the US, South Africa will need its best diplomatic skills at the ready to finesse an arrangement that benefits us as a developing country that is an important partner of the US in Africa, while we continue to make an impression among countries of the Global South. We need to be able to stand our ground, and protect our principles, while realising that we may well have to deal with circumstances that are not always to our liking.
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