The outbreak of violence in Mozambican capital Maputo after the disputed elections of October 9 is a body-blow to the democratic project in the region. Mozambique went from one of the world’s poorest countries to a potential regional powerhouse after substantial natural gas deposits were discovered in the north of the country in recent years.
Unhappily, it has joined the ranks of those African states whose rulers enjoy splendid riches but whose people are trapped in poverty and destitution. Elections in such countries are often violent contests, observing the form but not the spirit of democracy.
Mozambique’s history of poverty, war and civil strife did not end in 1994 when ruling party Frelimo reluctantly submitted itself to its first proper electoral contest in 1994 — after 20 years as a one-party system.
If anything, the discovery of gas deposits drew new attention to the privileges enjoyed by its rulers, mostly comprising the inner circle of Frelimo. The inequality only worsened as top figures in the state enjoyed the benefits of criminality, with smuggling of natural resources and illicit drugs and weapons further enriching the few.
The rent-seeking economic model also delivered little of the productive investment needed to help build a middle class that could become the foundation of a functioning democracy.
South Africa cannot dictate to Mozambique. But it can use its influence to ensure that the people of Mozambique are able to exercise their democratic options
So it’s hardly surprising that in an atmosphere of political repression and slim chances of economic upliftment, marginalised voters, especially the youth, should rise up against the electoral chicanery that Frelimo has employed in earlier, rigged elections. The absence of an independent judiciary, a free media and a vibrant civil society — and even an independent electoral agency — has left the politicians free to fix outcomes and settle scores with opponents using extrajudicial methods, including assassinations.
The recent civil strife suggests the country has a long way to go before it can count itself among the mostly free, democratic nations of the world. Inevitably, this has implications for South Africa, which has had to close the Lebombo border with its neighbour and has seen millions of dollars lost. The government this week warned travellers to postpone non-essential visits. It is a conflict that Mozambique, and the region, can barely afford.
Given the bleak outlook, it is extraordinary that the Southen African Development Community should have decided in its wisdom to postpone any action until it meets in Harare on November 20, a delay that seems inexplicable given the urgency of the crisis.
Certainly, South Africa’s history of intervention is a ghastly narrative for Mozambique, with the apartheid regime having supported the Renamo movement from its inception to its later transformation into a fully-fledged political party. Hiding behind the coattails of Sadc, South Africa appears to accept that Frelimo will cling to power regardless of any democratic outcome. Sadly, this is a repeat of the experience of Zimbabwe, which is now in a permanent state of political paralysis, ruled by a former army strongman in the name of the Zanu (PF) party, another liberation remnant.
While former president Thabo Mbeki preached his doctrine of “quiet diplomacy”, Robert Mugabe clung to power despite the popular will for electoral change. He engaged in a ruinous land grab that gutted the economy, leading to hundreds of thousands fleeing a collapsed economy and making South Africa their home.
The same must not be allowed to happen in Mozambique. South Africa cannot dictate to Mozambique. But it can use its influence to ensure that the people of Mozambique are able to exercise their democratic options, just as millions do in South Africa, without fear of retribution and intimidation. A mix of carrots and sticks may be necessary.
South Africa needs to stand up for what we believe in, with appropriate sensitivity and diplomacy, and while also taking into account the special circumstances of Mozambique’s history and South Africa’s shameful role in its own pre-democratic era. What is good for our people should also be good for the people of Mozambique.
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