As president-elect Donald Trump takes his seat in the west wing of the White House on January 20, we here on the southernmost tip of Africa should be suitably cautious.
Already Trump has threatened the Brics formation (of which South Africa is a leading member) with tariffs and sanctions should the group continue with its campaign against the dollar.
For some time now we have seen how the attitude of the US and the collective West has shifted with regards to Brics and its perceived agenda. What we are observing now from the incoming Trump administration is the hostile nature with which it is prepared to engage with Brics+.
So, South Africa needs to be well aware that these are not empty threats from Trump. The Agoa trade agreement will be the first in the firing line because there already exists a bipartisan proposal to end the agreement, which includes South Africa. Once that leverage is out of the way, it will apply additional pressure with issues such as our greylist status.
Closely linked to this will be further scrutiny of the relationship we have with China and Russia. We are all aware of the new cold war that is germinating between the US and China. The chip war, tariffs and certain sanctions meted out against China will certainly intensify and South Africa’s relations with Moscow and Beijing will have consequences for us.
I’m convinced that next year, as South Africa hosts the G20 gathering, Trump (if he attends in person) will most certainly give President Cyril Ramaphosa an ultimatum — you are either with us or against us.
Our nonaligned position regarding the Ukraine war is also not going down well in Washington. Claims about historic ties between Russia and the former governing party, the ANC, as well as unsubstantiated claims of arms shipments from South Africa to Russia, further fuel the tensions between the US and South Africa.
Russia and Brazil are viewed as the two main protagonists actively wanting to “dedollarise” and begin a process of promoting a Brics currency. They also want to encourage Brics countries to do trade and business among themselves in their respective local currencies, thus rendering the dollar obsolete.
South Africa is seen as being part of this axis, hence I’m convinced that next year, as South Africa hosts the G20 gathering, Trump (if he attends in person) will most certainly give President Cyril Ramaphosa an ultimatum — you are either with us or against us.
The South African government had better be prepared for these tensions within our foreign policy space. No country’s foreign policy can be dictated to by other countries but the department of international relations & co-operation (Dirco) had better have a spine and a plan as to how to manage the coming diplomatic storm.
The next battle will be in the domain of calls for a reform of the UN system, especially its Security Council. The US knows how much South Africa would want to be one of the permanent representatives on that council, and may attempt to use this as another leverage point against our country.
Another major disagreement between the US and South Africa is around the ICJ case brought against Israel, charging it with committing genocide in Gaza. Already the global court has found that a plausible case exists for such a serious claim against Israel. The US is going to apply whatever pressure is needed to try to get South Africa to withdraw the case.
We will just have to wait and see to what lengths the US is prepared to go on behalf of its Middle East ally. The fact that arrest warrants were issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant can directly be linked to the ICJ case and hence to South Africa’s actions.
Intense lobbying from the Israelis is taking place at the UN and in the US corridors of power to apply pressure on South Africa to drop this case. The diplomatic storm surrounding this will be top of the agenda for both Trump and Netanyahu in 2025. Our government, though principled on this matter, needs to have a clear plan as to how it will respond to threats of significant sanctions and diplomatic isolation — not forgetting our own Jewish Zionists, who actively played a role in last year’s general election to undermine the ANC government.
Finally, as South Africa takes on the presidency of the G20 for 2025 — and since one of the main objectives is to place Africa front and centre on the G20 agenda — here too the country might get significant pushback from the West. Unfortunately South Africa is the weak link in the Brics grouping and hence the US, UK and others will opt to punish South Africa and make an example of it.
South Africa has its foreign policy work cut out for it come 2025. Let us hope that Dirco minister Ronald Lamola and his team are ready for a bumpy ride, and that they have already anticipated these challenges and have a plan to respond.
• Van Heerden is a senior research fellow at the Centre for African Leadership & Diplomacy at the University of Johannesburg.
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