After 15 months of a deadly conflict that has killed nearly 50,000 people, displaced millions of Palestinians and left most of Gaza in smoking ruins, Israel and Hamas have finally agreed on a ceasefire deal. The US, Qatar and Egypt played key roles in facilitating the deal.
The first phase, due to begin today, should see the two sides exchanging some captives.
When Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 7 2023, they killed more than 1,200 people and took 250 hostages back to Gaza. Israel has insisted on the unconditional release of the hostages since it began its invasion of Gaza shortly after the attack.
A ceasefire deal in November 2023, which lasted about a week, secured the release of 105 hostages from Gaza. About 94 hostages, 34 of whom are presumed dead, remain in Hamas captivity. The first phase of the new deal, which will be implemented over six weeks, will see Hamas release 33 hostages while Israel is expected to release an unspecified number of the thousands of imprisoned Palestinians.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has been under immense public pressure to secure the release of the hostages since the beginning of the war.
Other terms of the deal include Israel’s withdrawal of its troops from Gaza’s population centres to areas not more than 700m into the territory, where they have been engaged in a major ground offensive since October 2023.
Any durable peace and security is dependent on the conferment of statehood to Palestine.
The troops have wreaked untold havoc in residential areas in search of Hamas operatives. The presence of boots on the ground has been a crucial element of Israeli strategy in keeping Hamas at bay, so the implementation of this part of the deal will provide a window into how much Israel is committed to a ceasefire.
The deal also enjoins Israel to allow Palestinian civilians to return to their homes in the north of Gaza, much of which was left in ruins by an intensive bombing campaign.
Israel also agreed to facilitate the flow of aid into Gaza, allow injured Palestinians to leave for treatment, open the Gaza-Egypt border crossing and gradually withdraw its military presence there.
Israel’s refusal to allow sufficient humanitarian aid into Gaza and its blocking of movement from the territory led South Africa to file a case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in December 2023 arguing that it was committing genocide, a charge which Israel strenuously denied.
It is not far-fetched to argue that South Africa’s actions, with the support of other countries, may have contributed to pushing Israel towards a ceasefire deal. Israel’s conduct in Gaza and the West Bank has been widely criticised as flouting international law, and has been the object of global moral outrage.
The terms of the second and third phases of the deal will be negotiated during the implementation of the first phase, which is due to last for six weeks. In the second stage, Hamas would release all the remaining living hostages in exchange for the release of more Palestinian prisoners in Israel, which would. begin a complete withdrawal of its forces from Gaza.
Though the details of the third phase are yet to be confirmed, it would entail the release of the bodies of dead hostages held by Hamas and an agreement on 3-5-year reconstruction plan for Gaza overseen by international institutions.
The third phase will also grapple with the future governance of Palestine.
While the news of the deal is welcome and its successful implementation would give suffering Palestinian civilians a much-needed respite from the horrors of war, nothing is guaranteed.
The language used by the leaders of the warring parties is far from reconciliatory, failing to provide any assurances that the ceasefire will hold.
The practicality of the deal, especially the third phase, is also in doubt. Any durable peace and security is dependent on the conferment of statehood to Palestine. While Israel agreed to a two-state solution in the Oslo accords of the 1990s, Netanyahu and Israel's right-wing have long rejected this option.
• Monyae is the director of the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg
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