Since US President Donald Trump commented about imaginary land grabs in South Africa, some have started pushing a misleading narrative that agriculture is under pressure and has been failing for a while. Inept municipalities, poor road infrastructure, stock theft and port inefficiencies all contribute to this narrative of failure and despair. Stories of the failings of land-reform farms add to this sentiment of regression in agricultural progress.
But this is far from the reality. Regardless of how experts feel about the state’s capacity and policy stance since 1994, the undeniable fact is that the farming sector has grown tremendously — and indeed, is not failing.
Data from the department of agriculture shows that domestic agricultural output in 2023/2024 was more than double what it was in 1994. The improvement has been wide-ranging, from livestock to horticulture and field crops.
The higher production levels have mainly been underpinned by new production technologies, better farming skills, growing demand (locally and globally) and progressive trade policy. The private sector has played a major role in this progress.
South Africa was the world’s 32nd largest agricultural exporter in 2023, the only African country in the top 40 in value terms. This was made possible by a range of trade agreements the South African government secured over the past decades. The African continent and Europe now account for about two-thirds of South Africa’s agricultural exports, and Asia is now also an important market.
And even if South Africa is excluded from Agoa, its exports would not be barred, they would just become more expensive in the US
The agricultural subsectors that have contributed most to this progress in exports are fruits, wine, wool and grains. South Africa now exports roughly half of its agricultural products in value terms, reaching a record $13.2bn (about R335bn) in 2023, according to data from Trade Map.
The friction in relations with the US has added to the concern that South Africa may be excluded from the benefits of the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa) and that agriculture would be under pressure in such a scenario. However, South Africa’s agricultural exports directly to the US account for only 4% of the total. And even if South Africa is excluded from Agoa, its exports would not be barred, they would just become more expensive in the US. The tariffs that would be applied are about 3%.
I am not minimising what is at stake; the agricultural products South Africa exports to the US include citrus, nuts, wine, grapes and fruit juices, among others. For these industries, an exclusion from Agoa would be negative, but it would not signify a collapse of South African agriculture.
Beyond the exports, the increase in farm output over the past 30 years is why South Africa is now ranked 59th out of 113 countries in the global food security index, making it the most food-secure country in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Boasting about this ranking when millions of South Africans go to bed hungry daily may ring hollow.
However, it is essential to note that many South Africans lack access to food due to the “income poverty challenge” rather than lack of availability due to low agricultural output, as in other parts of Africa. South Africa produces enough food but does not export all of it. A lot is kept domestically for the local market.
To address poverty, South Africa must generate employment and ensure that households have sufficient income to buy food.
The disappointing part of agriculture in South Africa is inclusion of black farmers. As I argued in my recent book, A Country of Two Agricultures, “Nearly three decades after the dawn of democracy, South Africa has remained a country of ‘two agricultures’. On the one hand, we have a subsistence, primarily noncommercial and black farming segment; on the other, we have predominantly commercial and white farmers.”
The book adds that the democratic government’s corrective policies and programmes to unify the sector and build an inclusive agricultural economy have suffered failures since 1994.
“The private sector has also not provided many successful partnership programmes to foster black farmers’ inclusion in scale commercial production... The National Agricultural Marketing Council estimates that black farmers account for less than 10%, on average, of commercial agricultural production.”
This lacklustre performance by black farmers in commercial agriculture cannot be blamed solely on historical legacies. The government has failed to support the development of the new crop of farmers.
Fortunately, not all is lost. Plans and programmes are in place to sustainably increase the number of black farmers. The agriculture and land reform plans are not aimed at replacing existing farmers with new black farmers. The government has about 2.5-million hectares to distribute to black farmers. This will be “growing the agricultural pie” without threatening property rights in the country.
South Africa’s agriculture is robust and has room for growth. As we progress toward supporting the sector, there must also be room for young people to be included.
• Wandile Sihlobo is an agricultural economist.
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