The ANC national working committte (NWC) will tomorrow set in motion a number of actions that may change the party, and with it the country, in ways that could also cement President Cyril Ramaphosa as yesterday’s man.
While many are focused on whether the DA will survive the ANC’s NWC meeting — which is expected to announce the fate of the Blue Party within the GNU — a proxy battle is under way within the ANC about the direction the party must take.
The audio published by TimesLIVE earlier this week — in which the ANC parliamentary caucus discussed the politics behind the budget, but more precisely how the DA defined itself outside the GNU — is revealing in many ways.
It tells us that ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile is ready, but perhaps desperate and amateurishly overeager, to take over from Ramaphosa. Behind the scenes, and seemingly unaware of the recording, he directs and enthusiastically pushes for the DA to be expelled. We all know the ANC has always been divided over its abusive relationship with the DA. Mashatile nails his colours to the mast, effectively indicating there is only one decision to be taken about the DA being in cabinet.
He is correct that the DA can’t be trusted to implement a budget they opposed — but doesn’t explain how the replacement of the DA (with its 87 MPs) and the Freedom Front Plus (which has six), with ActionSA’s six members and two from other smaller parties, will help cushion the ANC. And, importantly, create a stable government. Perhaps a stable government might just hinder his march to the top post.
Ramaphosa, in the TimesLIVE audio, appeals for cool heads, saying, effectively, the DA must not be stopped from expelling itself from the GNU. He is disingenuous because he knows the DA is firmly ensconced in the hallowed halls of power and won’t leave without a push. He knows the faux pas by the DA are a consequence of a party whose leader, John Steenhuisen, is in need of serious strategy lessons.
But Ramaphosa is also aware that the departure of the DA from the GNU is going to leave him woefully exposed and vulnerable. His main skeleton haunts him: the Phala Phala whitewash reports — done by the public protector, South African Reserve Bank and others — isn’t dead and buried.
While Zuma was lucky to spend hours in jail, the jury is out on what happens should Ramaphosa — without presidential protection — be forced to answer questions about those dollars found in his couches.
He must by now know — as was the case with his predecessor, Jacob Zuma — that the veneer of protection offered by his seat at the Union Buildings becomes paper thin the moment he vacates the position of president. This is how Zuma came to spend hours at the Estcourt correctional centre before being granted a hastily arranged pardon. Those hours left him hurt and bitter, and he formed the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party, which has become the ANC’s nemesis in chief.
While Zuma was lucky to spend hours in jail, the jury is out on what happens should Ramaphosa — without presidential protection — be forced to answer questions about those dollars found in his couches. Would Mashatile, who is feeling persecuted by people linked to Ramaphosa’s faction, save him when or if the moment comes?
If Ramaphosa is not thinking about how and when he leaves the stage, we must wish him luck. He might not know what hit him, just as Zuma appeared disoriented when he addressed the nation that fateful Valentine’s Day in 2018 that became his last day in office.
The ANC succession battle is firmly and truly under way. When the party announces later this year that branches can start discussing succession, the people who matter will know the battle is essentially over. What’s left is pronouncements.
The problem for Ramaphosa is the faction that kept him at the helm is subdividing at a frightening pace over who should succeed him. And Mashatile can’t assume the people and branches that made him deputy still want him to succeed Ramaphosa. It doesn’t always follow.
He may have a foot in the door by virtue of being Ramaphosa’s deputy, but his detractors will say a vulnerable ANC requires a leader beyond reproach. He will likely fob off claims of corruption and fraud, involving people around him, as political persecution, but would this ensure a smooth sail to the top spot?
Women in the ANC are looking at the election of Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as president in Namibia, and wondering if 2029 may be their chance to revive an ANC weakened by successive male leaders. Young people such as Ronald Lamola will ask if the old and tired senior leaders don’t want to hand over to them.
Some ask if Kgosientsho Ramokgopa’s eagerness to put load-shedding behind us is not informed by a desire to be announced as the man who handled one of the biggest challenges facing our economy — and is therefore ready for deployment to something higher than a ministerial position. That he is educated and has appeal beyond ANC confines is a bonus, no?
What of KwaZulu-Natal leaders thinking the region is being punished for not having someone senior in the top echelons? What about Bheki Mkhize, who was to be charged but nothing came of it? And what of Fikile Mbalula, the ANC secretary-general, who runs the party engine? There is no chance of him sitting out the battle to become ANC president. The point, though, is that the battle for Ramaphosa’s replacement is now, not in the future.
The possible premature departure of the DA from the GNU will strengthen an already emboldened Mashatile, who, to ensure greater security for the ANC’s leadership, will push the door open for the EFF to come in. If Mashatile gets his wish granted tomorrow to kick the DA out, Ramaphosa effectively becomes a sitting duck, more vulnerable than ever before — and more so if the EFF or MKP later join the GNU, or whatever it gets called.
Tomorrow’s special meeting is not about whether the DA keeps its positions within the GNU; it’s about how much grip Ramaphosa has lost within the ANC.
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