If ANC factions are successful in forcing the DA out of the GNU it will not only be a knockout blow to South Africa’s economy but will also hit the ANC with an electoral shock that sharply reduces its dominant party status in the country’s politics. Its share of the vote could drop to little more than 20%.
ANC leaders may not see it as such, but the party's future dominance now rests on making the current racially, ideologically and politically inclusive GNU work.
If the DA is pushed out by the ANC, it will strengthen the DA electorally, very likely pushing it for the first time over 30% in national elections. Being in the GNU has provided it with an opportunity to be seen by wider black constituencies across the country.
DA ministers in the GNU have probably done enough, in public perception, to show their individual capabilities, that they are holding the ANC accountable and, most importantly, have likely increased a national feeling that South Africa needs inclusive, diverse, collaborative government rather than one-colour, one-ideology rule.
South Africa’s economy is on its knees after past mismanagement, corruption and the anti-growth policies of the ANC. It now faces the US tariffs threat and development aid cut over the ANC’s persistent anti-Americanism and its ideologically fundamentalist approach. If ANC factions force out the DA, it will compound South Africa's economic crisis.
The GNU is under threat because of the ANC’s stubborn refusal to consult its fellow coalition partners — beyond superficially — over policies as required in a multiparty coalition. The ANC has been insisting, wrongly, that its policies are GNU policies, as if it is still the majority party, rather than allowing the GNU to come up with new policies.
ANC factions opposed to having the DA in the groundbreaking GNU want instead to have a coalition with ANC spin-offs, the EFF and the MKP, based on shared ideological interest, and are using the budget dispute to force the DA out.
They have been rallying after being in retreat as the GNU appeared to be more successful and more publicly supported than they had hoped. Now they sense an opportunity to strike.
The diverse makeup of the GNU has improved business, investor and citizen confidence. Local businesses and investors have been more confident to partner with the state where it fails. International businesses, investors and governments have been similarly buoyant about the new government. Given the perilous nature of the economy, the country desperately needs foreign investment, savings and support. If the DA leaves the GNU, South Africa will see capital, investment and skills flight.
A GNU that includes the EFF, whose leader Julius Malema continues to sing, 'Kill the Boer', which causes racial divisions, will face a full onslaught from the US
Bringing the EFF or MKP into the GNU to replace the DA will also weaken the moderate, social democratic and constitutionalist Cyril Ramaphosa group in the ANC, while strengthening the party's populists, who are ideological soulmates.
The current GNU configuration offers the best opportunity to tackle the country's dispute with the Trump administration, which, if unresolved, will unleash the biggest economic shock to the economy since the end of apartheid. The power of the current GNU is that it can credibly say it is a new government, not an ANC majority government, even if the ANC wrongly insists that it should have an ANC budget, ANC policies and ANC appointees.
It appears almost personal for the Trump administration to take on the ANC because of the party’s long-standing anti-Americanism and its ingratitude over US support for South Africa. The argument that the GNU is a new government, not an ANC government, is the best weapon in negotiating a compromise. A GNU that includes the EFF, whose leader Julius Malema continues to sing, “Kill the Boer”, which causes racial divisions, will face a full onslaught from the US.
It is mostly because of the inclusive GNU government that the US administration is exploring individual sanctions against ANC and EFF leaders and not full-blown sanctions against South Africa as a country.
Not only to save South Africa’s economy but for its own political survival, the ANC must change its culture from seeing itself as a majority government — with its party policies, interests and appointees automatically becoming those of government. Instead it must come up with new policies, decisions and appointments inclusively with its GNU partners.
• William Gumede is professor of practice, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand and author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg).
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