South Africans were astounded by the recent claim from the CEO of one of our biggest banks that the country’s unemployment rate was not 32.9% but closer to 10%. That number is so wildly optimistic that it raises eyebrows in the economic and statistical communities.
It is a figure that would, by any credible metric, rank South Africa among the world’s most economically successful countries. Unfortunately, this is not the case and no amount of wishful thinking changes that. Let us set the record straight.
It has been suggested that our unemployment figures ignore the informal sector; the bustling micro-economy of car washers, spaza shop owners, roadside traders and backyard mechanics. That could not be further from the truth.
Stats SA conducts the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a nationally representative, household-based survey that captures labour market activity across all segments, including the informal sector.
Credible statistics agencies worldwide adhere to internationally acclaimed methods to conduct their surveys, and Stats SA is no exception. Any deviation from such practice — by design or incompetence — would lead our nation astray. A sample for the QLFS is based on a stratified two-stage design, with probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling of units in the first stage and systematic sampling of dwelling units (DUs) in the second stage. This design aims to ensure representativeness across provinces and various settlement types.
As of quarter one of 2025, about 3.3-million people were working in the informal sector, a number drawn directly from our latest data published in May 2025. These are individuals who operate unregistered businesses, work without contracts or Unemployment Insurance Fund contributions, and often without formal premises. The QLFS captures this activity in great detail through targeted questions about business registration, size and tax compliance.
We also count self-employed people. These are individuals running businesses, with or without partners. These are not “missing” from our figures; they are clearly documented under status in employment categories in line with International Labour Organisation (ILO) definitions.
In the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, 1.9-million South Africans were recorded as own-account workers. Another 953,000 were employers. Together, they form a significant chunk of the employed, and they are absolutely part of the labour force numbers. There is no statistical black hole here.
The unemployment data is not defined by gut feel or political posture. The official unemployment rate is calculated based on three clear criteria: a person must not be employed, actively looking for work, and available to start work. This is the internationally accepted standard that most countries have adopted.
Using this measure, South Africa’s official unemployment rate was 32.9% in Q1:2025. If we add those who have given up looking — discouraged job seekers — the expanded rate rises to 43.1%. This is not a statistical error, it is a painful truth.
We understand that these numbers are hard to digest. They reflect deep structural challenges, a legacy of apartheid, low economic growth, poor education outcomes, and a skills mismatch in the labour market. But we do not fix statistics to feel better about our reality. We reflect that reality so the country can make evidence-based decisions to change it.
The role of Stats SA extends beyond simply presenting figures that please the public; it is about providing the statistics that the nation truly needs to know
As the national statistics office, Stats SA is guided by the Statistics Act of 1999, now amended by Act 29 of 2024. Our independence is not just procedural; it is protected by law. We release more than 250 statistical reports a year, and our credibility rests on our transparency and scientific rigour. Every survey, every indicator, is designed and tested by professionals who understand the weight of public trust.
We do not take lightly the duty to explain ourselves. In fact, we are compelled to do so even if it means repeating ourselves until the cows come home. That is the price of public service, and it is one we gladly pay.
Stats SA envisions “improving lives through data ecosystems” by cultivating new partnerships, leveraging diverse data sources and collaborating with data producers from the government, business and other sectors to enhance the country’s statistical information system.
Stats SA aims to ensure that policy and development programmes are underpinned by a dynamic data ecosystem that delivers the essential information and insights needed for evidence-based decision-making. To achieve this goal, it is crucial to employ sound methodologies that minimise the risk of aggregate biases. It is imperative that data generated by government departments and private entities is analysed in its specific context to prevent potential misinterpretation of the nation’s conditions arising from aggregation bias.
The role of Stats SA extends beyond simply presenting figures that please the public; it is about providing the statistics that the nation truly needs to know. Our task is to hold up an honest reflection of reality. It is then the responsibility of policymakers, economists, business leaders and citizens to take this reflection and use it to create a better society for everyone.
When public discourse strays into statistical fiction, we must bring it back to fact. The idea that our unemployment rate is “really” 10% not only undermines sound policy planning; it insults the millions of South Africans who wake up each day still desperately seeking work. It will be one of the biggest mistakes to assume that our country is not facing an unemployment challenge.
We shall not tire of explaining our methods. But let us be clear: a lower number does not create more jobs. Only data-driven policy and economic action can do that.
• Maluleke is statistician-general and head of Statistics SA
For opinion and analysis consideration, e-mail Opinions@timeslive.co.za
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