The Springboks will beat the All Blacks in both Tests in South Africa in August this year.
This isn’t a statement of arrogance or click bait. It is a statement based on current playing strengths.
It doesn’t matter how the two sides reflect in selection on match day, this year will be the one in which the world champion Springboks claw back two victories on an international scorecard that has so heavily favoured the All Blacks since SA’s international readmission in 1992.
The All Blacks, for the most part, have been utterly dominant and in the Richie McCaw/Dan Carter era absolutely tore teams apart, including the Springboks. It didn’t matter where those magnificent All Blacks played for a decade, home or away, they won 90% of the time.
For me, in the professional age, there wasn’t a more dominant or impressively consistent international rugby team than the “Mighty McCaw” marauders. They were so good, they even conquered the infamous altitude factor and in McCaw and Carter’s prime the All Blacks won five of the seven Tests played up north, two at Emirates Ellis Park, two at the FNB Stadium and one at Loftus.
The All Blacks of recent vintage have loved playing at altitude, with the Boks’ two victories being a one and two pointer, secured with the final kick of the game at the Mbombela Stadium (21-20) and Ellis Park (27-25).
There was once a time when Ellis Park spooked the All Blacks, regardless of their sheer individual or team potency, but any such stadium demons were exorcised by the genius of Carter and menace of McCaw.
Altitude and stadia location are not why I believe the All Blacks will lose to the Springboks. My confidence is because the depth available to the Springbok coaching staff is the strongest it has been since the All Blacks returned to South African fields in 1992.
Coupled with this is my belief that Ian Foster’s current squad of players are among the most vulnerable to wear the famed black in the past 15 years.
The Springboks have better squad depth than when they won the 2019 World Cup and the All Blacks have lost so much depth through retirements and a second-tier of players not being in the class of those who have departed.
The South African rugby public prefers the underdog tag and my experience of SA supporters is that they prepare for defeat against the All Blacks, so as not to be disappointed by what at one stage was the inevitability of defeat.
The current Springboks, playing at home, should never be underdogs, no matter who they are playing and the expectation from the rugby public has to be that the Boks will win both home Tests because they are a better team.
Ireland and France currently are better teams than the All Blacks and they showed this in hammering them last November in Dublin and Paris respectively.
The Boks lost in Australia to the All Blacks through a 78th minute penalty and won a week later through an 81st minute penalty, but the final 30 minutes of that 2nd Test was the precursor to why the All Blacks were always going to struggle in Dublin and Paris. The Bok forwards destroyed the All Blacks and they never recovered.
The All Blacks right at this moment don’t have a pack of forwards good enough to match and beat the Springboks in SA. My early prediction is not an insult to the history of the All Blacks and the pedigree of those who have worn the black jersey; it is a compliment to the quality of those who currently wear the green and gold jersey. We, in this country, have every right to expect these Boks to deliver.
• Mark Keohane is the founder of Keo.co.za, a multiple award-winning sports writer and the digital content director at Highbury Media. Twitter @mark_keohane
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