Risky balancing act for Boks brains trust

The coaching staff strongly believe Siya Kolisi and Handré Pollard will recover fitness and find form at the World Cup in France after serious injury, but it comes with massive risk.

Pollard is the preferred starting 10 for the Bok coaches. Damian Willemse is the utility back who can cover 10, 12, 15 and either wing. It could mean Manie Libbok, the starting No 10 in three of this season’s four Tests, missing out.

I would take Libbok to the World Cup. He has been the form South African No 10, he is the best goal kicker in the squad and, as an individual, he is running hot.

The counter to Libbok’s selection is that he is a luxury if Pollard and Willemse are fit. Libbok is viewed primarily as a specialist 10, whereas Pollard is a 10 the national coaches believe can slot in at 12. Willemse is also rated good enough to play in a 10 and 12 Test jersey.

I’d want Libbok there and would build an attack around his natural qualities, which are very different to those of Pollard. 

Inside-centre André Esterhuizen is a one-position specialist and I would sacrifice him to accommodate Libbok.

The Springboks World Cup squad of 33 will be confirmed on Tuesday and it will be influenced by the forwards and backs split, with the playing number increased from the 31 chosen for the 2019 World Cup in Japan.

Rassie Erasmus, as head coach in 2019, opted for a 17 forwards and 14 backs split. In 2023, the choices would be 19/14 or 18/15.

A handful of players will not be selected because of the balance of forwards and backs. It won’t be because of a lack of belief in their respective abilities, especially among the forwards and primarily the loose-forwards.

There are many good loose-forwards who will be overlooked because the final selection will be balanced to accommodate front-line specialists and those who can provide utility cover and versatility in playing more than one position.

Franco Mostert can play as a loose-forward or a lock. Kwagga Smith is rated as a 6, 7 and 8. Blindside flank Pieter-Steph du Toit’s versatility to cover at lock could eliminate the specialist lock challenge of Marvin Orie or Jean Kleyn, and a tough selection will be between Joseph Dweba as a third specialist hooker or back loose-forward Deon Fourie’s versatility in having played in that position.

The lack of international game time this season counts against Fourie and the same is true of loose-forwards Evan Roos and Jean-Luc du Preez. Roos has been used sparingly in two seasons and Du Preez’s inclusion in the match 23 against Argentina in Buenos Aires was his first selection in five years.

Four specialist props (two loosehead and two tighthead) and two who can play both sides has been the norm for the Boks since 2018.

There are many good loose-forwards who will be overlooked because the final selection will be balanced to accommodate front-line specialists and those who can provide utility cover and versatility in playing more than one position

Equally three No 9s.

A fit Kolisi removes specialist openside Marco van Staden.

I’ve picked 19 forwards and 14 backs from the 45 players who have trained with the Boks this season. My final selection includes 23 of the 28 players from the 2019 World Cup squad.

KEO'S 33 MAN SQUAD

Outside backs: Willie le Roux, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Canan Moodie, Cheslin Kolbe and Makazole Mapimpi. (5)

Midfielders: Damian de Allende, Lukhanyo Am and Jesse Kriel. (3)

No 10s: Handré Pollard and Manie Libbok. (2)

No 9s: Faf de Klerk, Jaden Hendrikse and Cobus Reinach. (3)

Utility back: Damian Willemse (covers 10, 12, 14, 15).

Total backs: 14

Props: Frans Malherbe, Vincent Koch, Steven Kitshoff, Trevor Nyakane, Ox Nche and Thomas du Toit. (6)

Hookers: Malcolm Marx, Bongi Mbonambi and Joseph Dweba. (3)

Locks: Eben Etzebeth, RG Snyman, Jean Kleyn and Lood de Jager. (4)

Loose-forwards: Siya Kolisi, Kwagga Smith, Duane Vermeulen and Jasper Wiese (4)

Utility forwards: Pieter-Steph du Toit and Franco Mostert. (2)

Total forwards: 19