With a month to go before the Springboks play Scotland in their Rugby World Cup opener, perspective must be more compelling than patriotism.
Patriotism, especially among South African rugby supporters, is a given. Ask any Bok supporter on the Friday of any Test match to pick a winner and the answer comes with a hallowed chant: “BOKKE” It is usually followed by a score prediction: “BOKKE by 10.”
The self-belief in the Boks is worthy of a global motivational book. It is based on pure love and very little science.
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
But in the context of what is to come in the World Cup, those loyalists deserve a bit of science; a bit of perspective as to how their romance of the Boks weighs up against the current reality of the Boks.
To illustrate this historical blind romance, here’s one example: The Boks in 2016 lose in Durban to the All Blacks 57-15 in an eight-try to zero humiliation. I am standing outside the stadium, and a heartbroken supporter comes over to me and tells me to go easy on the Boks.
Loyalists deserve a bit of perspective as to how their romance of the Boks weighs up against the current reality of the Boks
He tells me this was something out of the ordinary — a kind of one-off — and he can’t believe what he has just experienced because “it is not like we were expected to lose to them”.
At the time we’d won 15 out of 40 Tests against the All Blacks since our international return in 1992, and my response was that the defeat, if not the margin, was expected. He was stunned. “I am sure we beat them more than they beat us.”
BOKKE by 10.
Nothing wrong with that until it isn’t Bokke by 10, and then the brandy mixes with the Coke and the anger and betrayal set in.
For the record: the Boks statistically lose 37% of their Test matches. For the record: the Boks lose more World Cups than they have won.
Absolutely, the three titles from seven is a RWC tournament best, but on four occasions they’ve arrived and left before Prom night.
Perspective, people … just a little bit of perspective, and then marry the optimism with the obvious statistics that the Boks — since winning the World Cup in 2019 — have been inconsistent, out of sorts and never good enough to be ranked No 1.
The All Blacks are the biggest threat to any Springbok team. Psychologically, the men in black destroy the Boks more than they inspire them. In the professional era it has been too much of the former, with the Boks winning 18 from 49 Tests (37%).
The World Cup draw is such that the game’s greatest foes and collective winners of six — in nine — World Cups may meet in the quarterfinals. The only time that has happened was in 2003 in Australia, and the All Blacks scored three unanswered tries in cruising to a 29-9 win in Melbourne.
Only once have they met in Pool play, in 2019, and the Boks lost 23-13.
The Boks’ win record, since 2019, is two from seven against the All Blacks.
Realistically, the stumbling blocks to a Boks World Cup defence will come from the All Blacks, Ireland and hosts France.
The Boks, since winning the World Cup in 2019, have lost the only matches played against Ireland and France, both away and both by less than five points.
England and Australia, traditionally, have always proved difficult opponent for the Boks, and while their stocks may be down leading into the World Cup, they each boast three wins out of five against the Boks since the 2019 World Cup final.
The Boks are four from 14 in their most recent matches since 2021 against their five most significant opponents, which is a 28.5% winning success.
That’s the perspective.
The patriotism is that it is the Boks — and it is always Boks by 10.
Mark Keohane is the founder of keo.co.za, a multiple award-winning sports writer and the digital content director at Habari Media. Twitter: @mark_keohane
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