How many medals can Team South Africa win at the Paris Olympics?

South African fans can breathe a sigh of relief. The good news is that Tatjana Smith is on track to reach a podium, maybe two, at the Paris Olympics this year. The reigning 200m breaststroke queen from Tokyo 2020 is the closest thing the country has to a medal certainty at this stage.

She’s not home and dry because her rivals have lifted their games, though she can draw confidence from her performances at the national trials in Gqeberha this past week. Nonetheless, Paris will be a tough gig for medal hunters. There is a chance Team South Africa could thrive in the summer heat of the French capital.

Or they could wilt.

If everything goes their way they could land five or more medals. Or they could leave France with two medals, or one, or worse. That degree of uncertainty so close to the Olympics highlights what’s wrong with sport in this country. There’s no Olympic strategy. Predicting medals is a science, though luck still plays a small role.

In the build-up to Rio 2016 more than 20 contenders could be counted, which translated into 10 medals as well as four fourth places. Of those 20, a dozen were ranked in the top four of their codes, with another handful in the top six. Before London 2012 there were 13 contenders who delivered six medals and a fourth place. There was a clear dearth of contenders before Beijing 2008, where Khotso Mokoena landed his long-jump silver, the country’s only medal.

One factor separating the successes of London 2012 and Rio 2016 from the disappointment of Beijing 2008 was the funding made available for athlete preparation. Lotto cash flowed like water for London, and though the taps were tightened after that, there was still enough to help some of the medallists in Rio. South Africa has competed officially at 19 Games since 1908 and there have been only two consistent outcomes.

One is that they’ve always obtained at least one medal — 10 on three occasions, six three times, five three times, three four times and four, two and one medals twice apiece. The other result is they’ve always finished with at least one fourth place.

For Paris 2024 South Africa has five contenders who are in the top eight in the world, be it on rankings or by performances at world championships. Smith is counted twice — in the 200m and 100m breaststroke. There’s mountain biker Alan Hatherly (sixth), rowing’s men’s pair (sixth) and Wayde van Niekerk in the 400m (seventh).

There are another four athletes who could be included in this list. Long jumper Jovan van Vuuren’s 8.30m leap last month pushed him to seventh among the world’s automatic Olympic qualifiers and third on the 2024 world list, which is likely to change considerably in the next few months.And there are three swimmers who finished in the top eight at the unseasonal world championships in Doha in February, watered down as several international stars chose to skip it.

Pieter Coetzé ended third in the 200m backstroke and fifth in the 100m. Chad le Clos ended fifth and Erin Gallagher seventh in the men’s and women’s 100m butterfly.Golfers Ashleigh Buhai and Christiaan Bezuidenhout, South Africa’s highest-ranked players in the world at 29th and 56th, shouldn’t be discounted because golf results don’t follow rankings as rigidly as other codes. And perhaps surfers Jordy Smith, Matthew McGillivray and Sarah Baum can repeat the shock performance of Bianca Buitendag in Tokyo. There’s also the Blitzboks and the men’s 4x100m, 4x400m and mixed 4x400m relay teams — if they qualify for the Games. World Relays are early next month and the final rugby Sevens qualifying tournament is set for late June.

One might find reasons to throw in other names, but right now there are 10 top-eights, and that’s probably being generous. Bear in mind, though, that only three are in the top three (counting Smith twice) and five more are top six. So as matters stand, that means three or four medals in Paris with a couple of outside shots. New stunning performances or injuries may require this list to be revised before the start of the Games.

One characteristic that separates South Africa from the many countries that do well at the Games is strategy and structure; they focus on selected codes to ensure success. The US team, the most successful with 2,627 summer medals to date, have won 827 gongs (31.5%) from track and field and 578 from swimming (22%). China, a late starter in Olympic competition, have 636 medals, of which 81 have come in diving (12.7%), 69 in gymnastics (10.8%), 67 in shooting, 62 in weightlifting and 60 in table tennis (9.4%). China took control of diving in 1988 and they’re still in charge.

Even a small country like New Zealand specialises in certain events. They’ve won 137 medals, with 29 coming from rowing (21%), 26 from athletics (18.9%) and 23 in sailing (16.7%). The oarsmen and women have kept the Kiwis in the top eight of the Olympic rowing medals table at every Games since 2000. Their sailors have contributed silverware at each showpiece since 1984 except one — Athens 2004.

South Africa has 89 medals to date, 28 of which have come from athletics (31.4%), 20 from swimming (22.5%) and 19 from boxing (21.3%). To the untrained eye that may suggest there are specialisations, but that would be an illusion.

Boxing last won a medal at Rome 1960, the final Games before isolation. Since readmission at Barcelona 1992 no local boxer has won more than one fight, let alone a medal. In fact, South Africa won’t field any boxers for the third Games in a row if their pugilists fail to win spots at the final qualifying tournament in Bangkok, starting in late May.

Athletics has gone off the boil, not only missing the podium in Tokyo, but also failing to medal at every world championships since 2017.

Swimming is the country’s most successful sport since the advent of democracy with 16 medals, two more than athletics. And yet, by yesterday morning, the team had only one likely Games newcomer, Lara van Niekerk, a big drop from previous years where the number of pool-side debutants have ranged from five to 16.

When the team returned from Doha in February warnings were sounded about the dangers to the sport once load-shedding hits in winter. Swimmers need warm water to execute their strokes and kicking techniques, and warm water requires heaters which run on electricity.Swimming South Africa president Alan Fritz said they’d approach the sports minister to speak to his electricity counterpart about a load-shedding exemption for a couple of pools, including the one at Tuks which houses the bulk of the national squad, among them Smith and Coetzé. This week a federation official said they were still awaiting a response to their request for a meeting.

The storms that rolled around the country a few daysago were a timely reminder that winter is on its way.If proper plans and structures were in place, that wouldn’t be an issue.

Another indictment is that South Africa has failed to capitalise on major Olympic successes over the past three decades. There was much talk about the prowess of the country’s freestylers after the men’s 4x100m relay team took gold at Athens 2004. They were seventh in Beijing and fifth in London, but they fizzled out, unable to qualify a team for the 2016, 2020 or 2024 Olympics.

On the track, 400m hurdlers were falling out of trees from the mid-1990s into 2016, and yet none have qualified for Paris so far. Hestrie Cloete won the high jump silver at Sydney 2000 and again in 2004, but since then there hasn’t been a single entrant in this discipline, women’s or men’s. Local sport doesn’t have a plan to generate medals; instead, it drifts around aimlessly, almost like a parasite, waiting to latch onto rising talent.

The majority of national federations, fed up with Sascoc’s selection policies, voted for an all-inclusive Olympic entry scheme in 2019

The Operation Excellence funding programme relaunched by the South African Sports Confederation and Olympic Committee (Sascoc) last year helps many athletes, but it’s not a strategy. A national blueprint needs buy-in from administrators and politicians.

Sascoc’s commissions for coaching and high performance sport have one Olympic medallist, Mokoena, between them. The several local masterminds who have facilitated Games medals over the years are sitting on the Olympic sidelines, like former swimming head coach Graham Hill, now living in New Zealand; former national rowing guru Roger Barrow; former Blitzboks coach Neil Powell; and Van Niekerk’s former coach tannie Ans Botha.

There are several other coaches and sports scientists who would be worthy members of a formidable home-grown brains trust. Those are the calibre of people who should devise a plan to lift South Africa up the Olympic medals table.

If they say dump everything except athletics, swimming and rowing, then run with it. If they want to create programmes to develop boxing, gymnastics and judo because they offer more Olympic medal opportunities, then do it. The politicians can arrange to get Lotto to supply guaranteed funding for at least three, preferably four, Olympic cycles. The administrators must carry out the instructions of the brains trust to develop the athletes.

But where’s the will from politicians and administrators?

The majority of national federations, fed up with Sascoc’s selection policies, voted for an all-inclusive Olympic entry scheme in 2019. There are some who feel a strategy focusing on excellence would result in weaker Olympic codes getting blocked from the Games. But perhaps there could be a compromise where athletes meeting predetermined selection standards of excellence are fully funded, and those who don’t must contribute to their trips.

One of the safest bets one can make in South African sport is that the politicians and administrators will be the first to demand time with any medallists in Paris.Smith’s 200m breaststroke victory in Tokyo pulled South Africa’s run of gold medals across three Games, from London 2012 through Rio to Tokyo. That’s the second-longest golden run after the six-Games streak from London 1908 to Los Angeles 1932. The next best is two, from London 1948 to Helsinki 1952, and then two one-offs, at Atlanta 1996 and Athens 2004.

But the downward trajectory from four golds at London 2012 to two at Rio 2016 and to one at Tokyo 2020 isn’t promising.If Smith wins gold in Paris she will become the first South African Olympic champion to hold their spot on a Games podium in real time (Caster Semenya’s 800m double came only after her 2012 silver had been upgraded to gold after her 2016 victory). And should Smith win two medals she’ll join Le Clos as the country’s most decorated Olympian with four gongs.

There’s much at stake for Smith and South African sport. She and coach Rocco Meiring have their plan mapped out for Paris.

Where is the national plan?