I was accused of arrogance a week ago when I made the statement that Rassie Erasmus’s Springboks would wallop the Wallabies in Johannesburg in the Rugby Championship opener on August 16.
It was not arrogance, but confidence in the strength of the current Springboks squad, the depth Erasmus has built, and the awful record the Wallabies have when playing in South Africa, especially at altitude.
Historically, the Wallabies have never travelled well to South Africa, and have not enjoyed any success at Ellis Park since the sport turned professional in 1996. Australia’s win rate of 21% when playing in South Africa — 10 wins from 48 Tests — is their lowest in any nation they have visited to play Tests.
It is the lowest win rate of any of the six nations to have played more than 20 Tests in South Africa.
Australia’s historical struggles
For those who would use a counter-argument to the historical struggles of the Wallabies, assessing the now and most recent, this makes for even more damning reading — if you are Australian.
Since Erasmus took charge of the Springboks in 2018, the Wallabies have lost three successive Tests in South Africa, with the Boks winning 43-12 at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria in 2023.
The Wallabies initially had success against Erasmus’s world champions in Australia, winning three in a row post-Covid but this group of Boks have been too potent for the Wallabies, even in Australia, with three successive wins in 2022 (24-8 in Sydney) and 2024 (33-7 in Brisbane and 30-18 in Perth).
The Boks are four from four against Australia in the past three seasons, with three of those wins in Australia.
Confidence in world champs
There’s no arrogance in having confidence in a world champion Springboks match 23 playing at home against a Wallabies team that was ranked as low as eighth in the world a year ago and is currently ranked sixth.
Erasmus a year ago played two very different starting XVs against the Wallabies in Brisbane and Perth, making 10 changes for the second Test in Perth.
The Boks won by 26 and 18 points respectively, and in Sydney the differential was 16 points, with the superb young winger Canan Moodie debuting with a stunning try.
Erasmus, in the July matches against the Barbarians, Italy (twice) and Georgia, juggled his playing 23 for every match, and the Boks cruised to wins in each of the four matches, going past 50 against the Barbarians and Georgia and scoring 42 and 45 points against Italy, the latter being a 45-0 win.
Given the confidence Erasmus has in his overall playing squad and also the value he puts on occasion and the significance in winning the first of a two-Test series, I am expecting him to go with what could be considered his preferred run-on XV in Johannesburg against Australia and in Auckland against the All Blacks on September 6.
Endorsement of all players
It would not be a surprise if he then went with a different starting XV against the Wallabies in Cape Town on August 23, and against the All Blacks in Wellington on September 13. To do so would not be arrogant on his part, but an endorsement of every player in his squad, and a reinforcement of his plan to manage game time in the build-up to the 2027 World Cup in Australia.
This is the XV I think will start on August 16, from 15 to 1: Fassi, Kolbe, Kriel, De Allende, Arendse, Libbok, Williams, (Cobus) Wiese, Du Toit, Kolisi (captain), De Jager, Etzebeth, Louw, Marx and Nché.
Now look at who is not there, and that emphasises the depth of the Springboks, and why Erasmus could make 15 changes for the second Test against Australia in Cape Town on August 23.
To have an appreciation of why every South African rugby supporter should be expecting an emphatic win, just look at the No 10 options available to Erasmus in Libbok, Sacha-FM and double World Cup winner Handre Pollard.
The Wallabies, at No 10, have Tom Lynagh, who, with the greatest respect to the young man, would not make the Boks’ extended squad.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.