It’s been 31 years and 50 Tests since the All Blacks have been beaten at their cathedral, Eden Park, in Auckland. Siya Kolisi’s back-to-back Springboks World Cup winners are good enough to be the history makers who end this streak.
Ian McIntosh’s Springboks of 1994 drew 18-all in outscoring the All Blacks two tries to nil, a few months after France had beaten the All Blacks at Eden Park.
The 2017 British & Irish Lions drew 15-all in the third and final Test at Eden Park for a drawn series, in a Test the All Blacks scored two tries to nil.
The last time the Boks played at Eden Park was in 2013. Expectation was high that the Boks would win, but hooker Bismarck du Plessis saw red after copping two yellow cards.
It is hard enough to beat the All Blacks in New Zealand playing 15 on 15. The Boks, for all their qualities, were not good enough playing 14 on 15 against arguably the greatest All Blacks team produced in the professional age. The All Blacks won 29-15.
Since Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber took charge of the Springboks in 2018, there have been 13 Test matches. Erasmus’s Boks have won seven, drawn one and lost five. These seven victories include three wins on neutral grounds, and one each on Australia’s Gold Coast, at Twickenham, at the 2023 World Cup final in Paris, and in Wellington, New Zealand, where the Boks also drew 16-all in 2019.
Inspirational Kolisi captaincy
These are statistics more important than the historical weight of 108 Tests played between the nations, because these 13 have been played by the core of the squad currently in New Zealand.
The Boks, under the inspirational Kolisi’s captaincy, have won back-to-back World Cup titles in 2019 in Japan,and 2023 in France. No other nation has won successive titles away from home.
The Boks won a British & Irish Lions series during Covid in 2021, playing behind closed doors because no spectators were allowed into the stadium in Cape Town, where all three Tests were played.
The Boks, in 2024, won the Rugby Championship and beat the All Blacks on successive Saturdays in South Africa.
Kolisi is in doubt to play at Eden Park. If not next Saturday, then he should return from injury for the second Test in Wellington.
Veteran fullback Willie le Roux is also a doubtful starter, although he is in New Zealand.
Squad rotation
n an ideal world, both would start for me at Eden Park, if available. If not, then Marco van Staden plays in the No 6 jersey and Damian Willemse — who started the 2023 World Cup final against the All Blacks in Paris — starts at 15.
Erasmus has rotated his squad all season, making on average 10 changes to the starting XV and 12 to the match 23 in the six Boks matches this season, the friendly against the Barbarians and the five Tests that followed.
I believe the match 23 that plays against the All Blacks will be more consistent with most players involved in the Boks’ 30-22 win against the Wallabies in Cape Town in their most recent Test.
Expect to see Makazole Mapimpi replace Canan Moodie on the wing, a change at fullback, the same midfield of Jesse Kriel and Damian de Allende, Handre Pollard at No 10, match-day squad change at No 9, with Cobus Reinarch and Grant Williams rotating, Jean-Luc du Preez fit to play No 8, one of Siya or Van Staden, Pieter-Steph du Toit back in the No 7 jersey, the lock duos swapped from who starts to who finishes, and possibly Bongi Mbonambi to start and Malcolm Marx tasked with the finish at hooker.
Ox Nché and Wilco Louw will be the starting props.
The starting XV could differ by eight changes, but those would include players who were unavailable for Australia or played in the second half in Cape Town.
Erasmus will treat Eden Park like a World Cup final. His best available 23 will play.
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